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2023 will be the year of an EU-US free trade agreement, or at least serious negotiations towards that goal. Although this possibility has been raised many times before, only to stall in the face of tough regulatory or subsidy issues, the economic stakes are higher and the political obstacles are lower next year. Both the EU and the US desperately need faster economic growth. Monetary policy is essentially exhausted; fiscal policy is set to tighten. That leaves trade: expanding markets by removing tariffs and – more importantly – non-tariff barriers, such as licencing requirements and anti-dumping measures. Small wonder that the Obama administration is actively pursuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership to the west and raising the prospect of a US-EU deal in the east.
2023年，欧盟(EU)和美国将签订自由贸易协定，或者至少朝着这一目标展开严肃的谈判。之前，双方曾有多次机会签订协定，结果却因棘手的监管或补贴问题而未能成行。但明年的情况将有所不同，从经济上讲，此事的紧迫性将会加大，从政治上讲，此事遇到的障碍将会减少。欧盟和美国都迫切需要加快经济增长。货币政策基本上已经用光了，而财政政策将会收紧。如今只剩下贸易了，也就是通过取消关税（更重要的是取消许可证制和反倾销措施等非关税壁垒）来扩大市常难怪奥巴马(Obama)政府积极向西方宣扬《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(TPP)，并在东方提出美欧签订贸易协定的前景。
The US finally seems to have realized that Europe’s economic heft is a strategic asset. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a speech at the end of November that “America is not pivoting from Europe to Asia; we are pivoting with Europe to Asia. The EU is the largest economy in the world; it is the US’s largest trade and investment partner and China’s largest trade partner. [Building a genuine transatlantic market reinforces the transatlantic political and military alliance and helps both the US and the EU coordinate policy toward different Asian countries.] It also creates a new set of possibilities in the Atlantic basin, improving ties to both Africa and South America and encouraging trade and investment between them. Finally, the EU could be an important market for increased US energy exports.
美国似乎终于认识到，欧洲的经济影响力是一项战略资产。美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在11月底的一场讲话中表示，“美国不是在将重心从欧洲转向亚洲，而是在与欧洲一起将重心转向亚洲。欧盟是全球最大的经济体、美国最大的贸易与投资伙伴，同时也是中国最大的贸易伙伴。（打造真正的跨大西洋市场，能够强化跨大西洋政治与军事联盟，并有助于美欧协调针对亚洲各国的政策）。它还在大西洋盆地创造出一组新的可能性，改善与非洲及南美的关系，促进相关各方间的贸易与投资。最后要说的是，在美国能源出口实现增长后，欧盟可能成为美能源出口的重要出口市场之一。
Expanded US trade and the symbolism of a new and enduring transatlantic agreement could be a political lifeline for embattled EU leaders who see nothing but austerity and political fights ahead. It gives them something new to offer their consumers and at least some of their producers. And it makes clear that the US is putting a long-term bet on the EU, just as it has done ever since 1958, That also has to mean a long-term bet on the survival and indeed expansion of the eurozone. All of which means that if European governments are ever to find the political will to face down the agricultural and other lobbies that have frozen previous efforts to achieve a US-EU trade agreement, the time is now.
对于陷入困境、眼睛只盯着紧缩和政治斗争的欧盟各国领导人来说，对美贸易额扩大以及签订新的跨大西洋长期协定产生的象征意义，可能成为挽救他们政治命运的“救生索。这将使得他们能够向欧盟消费者以及至少一部分生产者提供某些新的东西。此外它可表明，美国将长期押宝于欧盟——正如其1958年以来一直做的那样。与此同时它肯定还意味着，美国长期押宝于欧元区的存续和真正扩张。这一切意味着，如果欧洲各国政府打算树立政治意愿、直面曾使早先美欧达成贸易协定的努力陷于停滞的农业游说组织和其他游说组织，现在正是时机。
Britain should be watching these developments with particular interest. If the US and the EU can agree to merge their markets, the cost of a potential British exit from the EU go way up. Britain would once again become an island economy, but one walled off from a transatlantic sea.
英国应对这些进展予以特别的关注。如果美国和欧盟能够达成协定、建立共同市场，英国退出欧盟的成本就会大幅上升。英国将再次变成一个岛屿型经济体，而且这次将隔绝于大西洋两岸。
Anne-Marie Slaughter is the Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and former director of policy planning for the US state department.
本文作者是美国普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)政治与国际事务学教授(the Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs)，曾任美国国务院政策规划主任。
2023 will be the year of an EU-US free trade agreement, or at least serious negotiations towards that goal. Although this possibility has been raised many times before, only to stall in the face of tough regulatory or subsidy issues, the economic stakes are higher and the political obstacles are lower next year. Both the EU and the US desperately need faster economic growth. Monetary policy is essentially exhausted; fiscal policy is set to tighten. That leaves trade: expanding markets by removing tariffs and – more importantly – non-tariff barriers, such as licencing requirements and anti-dumping measures. Small wonder that the Obama administration is actively pursuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership to the west and raising the prospect of a US-EU deal in the east.
2023年，欧盟(EU)和美国将签订自由贸易协定，或者至少朝着这一目标展开严肃的谈判。之前，双方曾有多次机会签订协定，结果却因棘手的监管或补贴问题而未能成行。但明年的情况将有所不同，从经济上讲，此事的紧迫性将会加大，从政治上讲，此事遇到的障碍将会减少。欧盟和美国都迫切需要加快经济增长。货币政策基本上已经用光了，而财政政策将会收紧。如今只剩下贸易了，也就是通过取消关税（更重要的是取消许可证制和反倾销措施等非关税壁垒）来扩大市常难怪奥巴马(Obama)政府积极向西方宣扬《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(TPP)，并在东方提出美欧签订贸易协定的前景。
The US finally seems to have realized that Europe’s economic heft is a strategic asset. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a speech at the end of November that “America is not pivoting from Europe to Asia; we are pivoting with Europe to Asia. The EU is the largest economy in the world; it is the US’s largest trade and investment partner and China’s largest trade partner. [Building a genuine transatlantic market reinforces the transatlantic political and military alliance and helps both the US and the EU coordinate policy toward different Asian countries.] It also creates a new set of possibilities in the Atlantic basin, improving ties to both Africa and South America and encouraging trade and investment between them. Finally, the EU could be an important market for increased US energy exports.
美国似乎终于认识到，欧洲的经济影响力是一项战略资产。美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在11月底的一场讲话中表示，“美国不是在将重心从欧洲转向亚洲，而是在与欧洲一起将重心转向亚洲。欧盟是全球最大的经济体、美国最大的贸易与投资伙伴，同时也是中国最大的贸易伙伴。（打造真正的跨大西洋市场，能够强化跨大西洋政治与军事联盟，并有助于美欧协调针对亚洲各国的政策）。它还在大西洋盆地创造出一组新的可能性，改善与非洲及南美的关系，促进相关各方间的贸易与投资。最后要说的是，在美国能源出口实现增长后，欧盟可能成为美能源出口的重要出口市场之一。
Expanded US trade and the symbolism of a new and enduring transatlantic agreement could be a political lifeline for embattled EU leaders who see nothing but austerity and political fights ahead. It gives them something new to offer their consumers and at least some of their producers. And it makes clear that the US is putting a long-term bet on the EU, just as it has done ever since 1958, That also has to mean a long-term bet on the survival and indeed expansion of the eurozone. All of which means that if European governments are ever to find the political will to face down the agricultural and other lobbies that have frozen previous efforts to achieve a US-EU trade agreement, the time is now.
对于陷入困境、眼睛只盯着紧缩和政治斗争的欧盟各国领导人来说，对美贸易额扩大以及签订新的跨大西洋长期协定产生的象征意义，可能成为挽救他们政治命运的“救生索。这将使得他们能够向欧盟消费者以及至少一部分生产者提供某些新的东西。此外它可表明，美国将长期押宝于欧盟——正如其1958年以来一直做的那样。与此同时它肯定还意味着，美国长期押宝于欧元区的存续和真正扩张。这一切意味着，如果欧洲各国政府打算树立政治意愿、直面曾使早先美欧达成贸易协定的努力陷于停滞的农业游说组织和其他游说组织，现在正是时机。
Britain should be watching these developments with particular interest. If the US and the EU can agree to merge their markets, the cost of a potential British exit from the EU go way up. Britain would once again become an island economy, but one walled off from a transatlantic sea.
英国应对这些进展予以特别的关注。如果美国和欧盟能够达成协定、建立共同市场，英国退出欧盟的成本就会大幅上升。英国将再次变成一个岛屿型经济体，而且这次将隔绝于大西洋两岸。
Anne-Marie Slaughter is the Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and former director of policy planning for the US state department.
本文作者是美国普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)政治与国际事务学教授(the Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs)，曾任美国国务院政策规划主任。
