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美国避免“财政悬崖”协议显现雏形

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The shape of a deal to avert the US fiscal cliff is at last emerging, with at least $1tn in new taxes, up to $1tn in fresh spending cuts and an increase in the debt ceiling, as negotiators scramble to reach agreement before the end-of-year deadline.

美国为避免财政悬崖的协议终于形成雏形,内容包括增税至少一万亿美元,新减支措施至多为一万亿美元,并提高债务上限。协商双方希望在年底最后期限之前达成协议。

Barack Obama, US president, and John Boehner, Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, held their third face-to-face meeting in eight days at the White House amid signs of growing momentum in the talks. If they strike a deal in the coming days, and are able to pass it through Congress, it would remove a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over the global economy.

在协商势头不断向好的情况下,美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)和众议院议长、共和党人约翰·博纳(John Boehner)在白宫举行了八天以来第三次面对面的会晤。如果未来数日他们能够达成一项协议并在国会获得通过,笼罩全球经济的一片巨大的不确定性乌云就会消散。

Failure to avert the fiscal cliff – a combination of $600bn in annual automatic tax hikes and spending reductions by the government starting next year – would probably tip the US into recession next year, a prospect that has alarmed global investors and the American public.

如果没能避免财政悬崖——从明年开始,每年自动增税和政府支出削减的总额将达到6000亿美元——那么明年美国很有可能会陷入衰退,这种可能性让全球投资者和美国公众都绷紧了弦。

Signs that the two sides may be getting closer helped give a positive mood to the US equity market, where the S and P 500 was up 1 per cent by lunchtime.

双方立场可能在进一步接近的迹象,为美国股市带来了积极的情绪,截止到午间,标准普尔500指数(S and P 500)上涨了1%。

But reaching agreement will only be the first step. In particular, Mr Boehner may face challenges in passing the legislation through the House if he is perceived by conservative members to have made too many concessions on taxes. He is expected to discuss the talks with members of his party today. Some Democrats may also balk at the terms of any deal if they believe Mr Obama compromised too aggressively on spending cuts.

但达成协议也仅仅是第一步。如果众议院保守议员认为博纳在税收问题上做出了太多的让步,那么他在众议院通过法案可能将面临着挑战。预计今天他将与本党议员就协商情况进行探讨。如果奥巴马在减支问题上让步太多的话,一些民主党人也可能会不支持协议中的条款。

A breakthrough came over the weekend, when Mr Boehner offered to allow tax rates to rise for millionaires from 35 to 39.6 per cent, abandoning his party’s long-held opposition to tax rate rises that Mr Obama has been demanding. Overall, Mr Boehner is offering a package worth nearly $1tn in new revenue – including about $500bn to be achieved through a tax reform that would limit tax breaks and deductions next year.

周末期间,博纳提议可以将针对富人的税率从35%提高到39.6%,在奥巴马一直要求而共和党也一直在反对的增税立场上做出了让步,这使协商取得了突破。总的来说,博纳提出的一揽子计划将带来将近一万亿美元的新税收收入,其中约5000亿美元将来自一项税收改革,即在明年限制税收减免政策。

While this is short of the $1.4tn in revenue Mr Obama is demanding, it leaves room for negotiations on final details. Among the options would be to raise tax rates for households earning more than $500,000 or $750,000 per year, which would bring in more revenue than Mr Boehner is allowing.

尽管这与奥巴马要求的增税1.4万亿美元存在差距,但还是为最终细节的协商留出了空间。其中的一个举措是,提高年收入超过50万美元或者75万美元家庭的税率,此举所带来的税收收入将高于博纳预想的水平。

Mr Obama and Mr Boehner still have to settle on the nature of spending cuts, including to popular health and pension programmes, which Republicans view as essential to any package but many Democrats resist.

奥巴马和博纳仍然需要在支出削减的性质上做出决定,包括公众医疗和退休金项目,共和党认为这是任何一揽子计划都不可缺少的,而很多民主党人却表示反对。

The shape of a deal to avert the US fiscal cliff is at last emerging, with at least $1tn in new taxes, up to $1tn in fresh spending cuts and an increase in the debt ceiling, as negotiators scramble to reach agreement before the end-of-year deadline.

美国为避免财政悬崖的协议终于形成雏形,内容包括增税至少一万亿美元,新减支措施至多为一万亿美元,并提高债务上限。协商双方希望在年底最后期限之前达成协议。

Barack Obama, US president, and John Boehner, Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, held their third face-to-face meeting in eight days at the White House amid signs of growing momentum in the talks. If they strike a deal in the coming days, and are able to pass it through Congress, it would remove a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over the global economy.

在协商势头不断向好的情况下,美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)和众议院议长、共和党人约翰·博纳(John Boehner)在白宫举行了八天以来第三次面对面的会晤。如果未来数日他们能够达成一项协议并在国会获得通过,笼罩全球经济的一片巨大的不确定性乌云就会消散。

Failure to avert the fiscal cliff – a combination of $600bn in annual automatic tax hikes and spending reductions by the government starting next year – would probably tip the US into recession next year, a prospect that has alarmed global investors and the American public.

如果没能避免财政悬崖——从明年开始,每年自动增税和政府支出削减的总额将达到6000亿美元——那么明年美国很有可能会陷入衰退,这种可能性让全球投资者和美国公众都绷紧了弦。

Signs that the two sides may be getting closer helped give a positive mood to the US equity market, where the S and P 500 was up 1 per cent by lunchtime.

双方立场可能在进一步接近的迹象,为美国股市带来了积极的情绪,截止到午间,标准普尔500指数(S and P 500)上涨了1%。

But reaching agreement will only be the first step. In particular, Mr Boehner may face challenges in passing the legislation through the House if he is perceived by conservative members to have made too many concessions on taxes. He is expected to discuss the talks with members of his party today. Some Democrats may also balk at the terms of any deal if they believe Mr Obama compromised too aggressively on spending cuts.

但达成协议也仅仅是第一步。如果众议院保守议员认为博纳在税收问题上做出了太多的让步,那么他在众议院通过法案可能将面临着挑战。预计今天他将与本党议员就协商情况进行探讨。如果奥巴马在减支问题上让步太多的话,一些民主党人也可能会不支持协议中的条款。

A breakthrough came over the weekend, when Mr Boehner offered to allow tax rates to rise for millionaires from 35 to 39.6 per cent, abandoning his party’s long-held opposition to tax rate rises that Mr Obama has been demanding. Overall, Mr Boehner is offering a package worth nearly $1tn in new revenue – including about $500bn to be achieved through a tax reform that would limit tax breaks and deductions next year.

周末期间,博纳提议可以将针对富人的税率从35%提高到39.6%,在奥巴马一直要求而共和党也一直在反对的增税立场上做出了让步,这使协商取得了突破。总的来说,博纳提出的一揽子计划将带来将近一万亿美元的新税收收入,其中约5000亿美元将来自一项税收改革,即在明年限制税收减免政策。

While this is short of the $1.4tn in revenue Mr Obama is demanding, it leaves room for negotiations on final details. Among the options would be to raise tax rates for households earning more than $500,000 or $750,000 per year, which would bring in more revenue than Mr Boehner is allowing.

尽管这与奥巴马要求的增税1.4万亿美元存在差距,但还是为最终细节的协商留出了空间。其中的一个举措是,提高年收入超过50万美元或者75万美元家庭的税率,此举所带来的税收收入将高于博纳预想的水平。

Mr Obama and Mr Boehner still have to settle on the nature of spending cuts, including to popular health and pension programmes, which Republicans view as essential to any package but many Democrats resist.

奥巴马和博纳仍然需要在支出削减的性质上做出决定,包括公众医疗和退休金项目,共和党认为这是任何一揽子计划都不可缺少的,而很多民主党人却表示反对。

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