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Australia’s resource boom might be cooling, but in the port town of Gladstone on Queensland’s central coast it does not feel that way. On the surface at least it appears to be a boom town, with workers in luminous high-visibility vests clogging streets scattered with billboards recruiting for jobs such as “advanced rigger and “outdoor technician.
澳大利亚的资源热潮或许已经开始降温，但走在位于昆士兰州(Queensland)中央海岸的港口城市格拉德斯通(Gladstone)，给人的感觉却并非如此。至少从表面上看，格拉德斯通是一座繁荣的城市。街道上挤满了身穿会发光的极其显眼的马甲的工人，不时可见招聘“熟练装配工以及“户外技工等岗位的告示牌。
The contrast with recent headlines, and government ministers, declaring the end of Australia’s resource boom could not be more stark in this town, where cleaners can earn as much as A$2,000 ($2,080) a week with overtime. “Gladstone was a small town, says Les, a 56-year-old crane driver who has spent most of his working life there. “Now it’s a madhouse. People are making lots of money [and] there’s not enough housing.
而近期媒体报道以及澳大利亚政府的部长们则宣称澳大利亚的资源热潮即将终结，这种论调与格拉德斯通的实际情况形成了鲜明对比。在这里，清洁工算上加班每周最多可以挣得2000澳元（合2080美元）。今年56岁的吊车司机莱斯(Les)在格拉德斯通工作了大半辈子，他说：“格拉德斯通原来是一座小城市，现在变得跟疯人院一样闹哄哄的，人们赚了大把钞票，在城里甚至找不到足够的住房。
Australia’s exposure to the commodity demand of China, India and other rising Asian economies has driven expansion in towns such as Gladstone and given the country an annual growth rate of about 3 per cent and an unemployment rate of just 5.4 per cent. But falls in the prices of key exports, rising labour costs and a high Australian dollar have seen several multibillion-dollar projects axed or postponed.
中国、印度以及其他新兴亚洲经济体对澳大利亚大宗商品的需求，推动了格拉德斯通等城市的经济扩张，使澳大利亚年经济增长率达到3%左右，而失业率仅为5.4%。但受关键出口商品价格下跌、劳动力成本上升以及澳元汇率走强影响，目前已有数个规模高达数十亿美元的项目被取消或延期。
The Reserve Bank of Australia last month scaled down its forecasts for the peak of the investment boom. It now expects big resource projects to stop contributing to the country’s growth some time next year, after peaking at an unprecedented 8 per cent of gross domestic product, and raised questions about where the economy will find new growth.
澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)上月下调了对于投资热潮顶部的预期。该行目前预计，到明年某个时候，大型资源类项目将不能再为澳大利亚的经济增长贡献力量，在这之前该领域在澳大利亚国内生产总值(GDP)中的比重达到前所未有的8%。该行对澳大利亚能否找到新的经济增长点发出了疑问。
The main source of activity in Gladstone is the construction of three big gas liquefaction plants on an island 3.5km from the mainland. Once completed, these projects will generate billions of dollars of export revenues and royalties for decades to come.
格拉德斯通的主要经济活动是由正在距离陆地3.5公里的一座岛上修建的三座大型天然气液化工厂带动的。这些项目一旦建成，将在未来数十年里为当地带来几十亿美元的出口收入以及土地使用费收入。
Gladstone, population 32,000 – where a fifth of the working population is employed in resource industries – is one reason why many Australians are not ready to write off the resources boom just yet. But at some stage in the near future other parts of the Australian economy, such as retail and construction, will need to pick up the slack and provide the jobs that will inevitably be lost in mining.
格拉德斯通有3.2万人口，其中在资源行业就业的劳动力占比高达五分之一，这也是为什么澳大利亚人还没有对资源热潮降温做好准备的原因。但在不远的将来，澳大利亚经济的其他板块——如零售、建筑等——将必须接过接力棒，为矿产行业不可避免将会出现的失业人潮提供工作岗位。
Not everybody is convinced the transition will be a smooth one.
不是每个人都认为这一转型过程将是一帆风顺的。
“We are a little sceptical of this idea and we think it will require more stimulus from the RBA, says Saul Eslake, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who says annual GDP growth will slow from 3.5 per cent this year, to 2.3 per cent in 2023. “There will be a loss of momentum and we don’t think some of these workers will find new jobs. That’s why we’ve got the unemployment rate rising to 5.9 per cent next year.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的经济学家索尔·埃斯雷克(Saul Eslake)表示：“我们对于澳大利亚经济转型持怀疑态度，我们认为澳大利亚央行有必要出台更多的经济刺激措施。埃斯雷克预计，澳大利亚今年GDP增速将放缓至3.5%，并将于2023年进一步放缓至2.3%。他指出：“澳大利亚的经济增长将失去动力，我们认为矿产领域的一部分失业工人将找不到新的工作。这也是我们认为明年澳大利亚的失业率将升至5.9%的原因。
For Australia’s minority Labor government the stakes are high. An election will be held next year and it has staked its reputation on returning the budget to a slim surplus, something that will be difficult to achieve unless commodity prices pick up.
对澳大利亚的少数派工党政府来说，这个问题关系重大。明年澳大利亚将举行大选，工党已经承诺将使财政预算恢复到少量盈余状态，但除非大宗商品价格走势好转，这个目标很难实现。
That is not an issue weighing too heavily on local officials in resource-rich areas, however.
尽管如此，对于资源丰富地区的地方领导来说，这并不是一个太严重的问题。
Martin Rush scoffs at the idea that demand for commodities is slowing. “Take a look at this, he says, pointing to a local plan showing a one-third increase in presold thermal coal shipments from the Hunter Valley by 2023. As mayor of Muswellbrook, a mining region two hours north of Sydney which feeds the world’s biggest coal export harbour in Newcastle, he is confident that a drop in energy coal prices, from about $120 a tonne at the start of the year to $90 a tonne now, will not stop work at the local pits.
马丁·拉什(Martin Rush)对有关大宗商品需求正在下降的看法不以为然。“看看这个，他指着本地的一项规划书说道。根据这项规划，到2023年猎人谷(Hunter Valley)的热媒预售量将增加三分之一。身为马瑟尔布鲁克(Muswellbrook)市长，马丁非常确信，即使热煤价格从年初的一吨120美元左右下降到现在的一吨90美元，本地矿场也不会停工。马瑟尔布鲁克是个产矿区，位于悉尼以北两个小时车程的地方，出产的煤炭运往位于纽卡斯尔(Newcastle)的世界最大煤炭出口港。
“Most of the mines were set up when the price of thermal coal was $40-$50 a tonne, he says, before rattling off a list of companies that have approached the council with plans to crank up production in local mines to offset weaker prices.
拉什表示：“大部分矿场是热能煤价格每吨40至50美元的时期创办起来的。他接着报出了一串企业名单，表示这些公司已向市政厅提出本地矿场的增产计划，以求抵消价格下降的影响。
Mr Rush says his optimism is built on strong demand for cheap electricity in China and India. But in Singleton, 50km southeast of Muswellbrook, spending on coal mine expansion projects has been put on hold and the big companies are looking to hold down costs with local union officials reporting job losses in the dozens.
拉什表示，他的乐观来源于中国和印度对廉价电力的强大需求。但在马瑟尔布鲁克以南50公里的辛格尔顿(Singleton)，许多煤矿扩张项目的投资计划已被搁置，各大公司都在寻求降低成本，当地工会官员也表示就业岗位减少了好几十个。
“We had about 130 contractors on our books. It’s now been cut back to about 90, says the founder of a local recruitment company that specialises in the mining sector. “And next year we are going to lose 40 from an open coal pit because they are going underground.
当地一家为矿产领域服务的招聘公司的创始人表示：“我们原来本子上登记的有130个承包商，但现在大概只剩下90个。明年有一个露天煤矿可能会让我们再减少40个承包商，因为他们将转入地下。
Gladstone’s LNG plants, each owned by a combination of companies including BG, Total, and the Chinese groups Sinopec and Cnooc, are all being built by US contractor Bechtel. Kevin Berg, Bechtel’s Gladstone operations manager, says 8,100 workers are building the plants. Once they are completed – which is expected to be around March 2023 – almost all of those jobs will be gone.
格拉德斯通在建的LNG工厂都由至少两家公司联合所有，这些公司包括英国天然气集团(BG)、道达尔(Total)以及来自的中石化(Sinopec)和中海油(Cnooc)。这些工厂都是由美国承包商柏克德(Bechtel)建造。该公司在格拉德斯通的运营经理凯文·伯格(Kevin Berg)表示，目前总共有8100名工人在建设这些工厂。一旦它们都建成，绝大部分岗位都会消失。预计工程将于2023年3月前后完成。
Gladstone has seen its share of dips but many locals argue that when the town’s LNG developments end there will be enough new projects to pick up the slack. But only some, such as a new coal terminal, are committed to go ahead, which has left some anxious about what might happen next.
格拉德斯通也出现了不景气迹象，但很多当地人认为，当这里的LNG项目完工的时候，肯定会有足够的新项目来弥补缺口。但目前许诺开展的只有为数有限的一些项目，包括兴建一座新的煤炭终端，这使得一些人担忧未来的境况。
“Gladstone doesn’t have a middle, says Colleen Taylor who runs a shoe shop in the centre of town. “You really haven’t got that permanent middle that you can rely on [when the mine workers move on].
市中心一家鞋店的老板科林·泰勒(Colleen Taylor)说：“格拉德斯通缺乏中间产业，（当矿产工人需要转行的时候），我们是没有这种可以起到支撑作用的中间产业的。
Australia’s resource boom might be cooling, but in the port town of Gladstone on Queensland’s central coast it does not feel that way. On the surface at least it appears to be a boom town, with workers in luminous high-visibility vests clogging streets scattered with billboards recruiting for jobs such as “advanced rigger and “outdoor technician.
澳大利亚的资源热潮或许已经开始降温，但走在位于昆士兰州(Queensland)中央海岸的港口城市格拉德斯通(Gladstone)，给人的感觉却并非如此。至少从表面上看，格拉德斯通是一座繁荣的城市。街道上挤满了身穿会发光的极其显眼的马甲的工人，不时可见招聘“熟练装配工以及“户外技工等岗位的告示牌。
The contrast with recent headlines, and government ministers, declaring the end of Australia’s resource boom could not be more stark in this town, where cleaners can earn as much as A$2,000 ($2,080) a week with overtime. “Gladstone was a small town, says Les, a 56-year-old crane driver who has spent most of his working life there. “Now it’s a madhouse. People are making lots of money [and] there’s not enough housing.
而近期媒体报道以及澳大利亚政府的部长们则宣称澳大利亚的资源热潮即将终结，这种论调与格拉德斯通的实际情况形成了鲜明对比。在这里，清洁工算上加班每周最多可以挣得2000澳元（合2080美元）。今年56岁的吊车司机莱斯(Les)在格拉德斯通工作了大半辈子，他说：“格拉德斯通原来是一座小城市，现在变得跟疯人院一样闹哄哄的，人们赚了大把钞票，在城里甚至找不到足够的住房。
Australia’s exposure to the commodity demand of China, India and other rising Asian economies has driven expansion in towns such as Gladstone and given the country an annual growth rate of about 3 per cent and an unemployment rate of just 5.4 per cent. But falls in the prices of key exports, rising labour costs and a high Australian dollar have seen several multibillion-dollar projects axed or postponed.
中国、印度以及其他新兴亚洲经济体对澳大利亚大宗商品的需求，推动了格拉德斯通等城市的经济扩张，使澳大利亚年经济增长率达到3%左右，而失业率仅为5.4%。但受关键出口商品价格下跌、劳动力成本上升以及澳元汇率走强影响，目前已有数个规模高达数十亿美元的项目被取消或延期。
The Reserve Bank of Australia last month scaled down its forecasts for the peak of the investment boom. It now expects big resource projects to stop contributing to the country’s growth some time next year, after peaking at an unprecedented 8 per cent of gross domestic product, and raised questions about where the economy will find new growth.
澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)上月下调了对于投资热潮顶部的预期。该行目前预计，到明年某个时候，大型资源类项目将不能再为澳大利亚的经济增长贡献力量，在这之前该领域在澳大利亚国内生产总值(GDP)中的比重达到前所未有的8%。该行对澳大利亚能否找到新的经济增长点发出了疑问。
The main source of activity in Gladstone is the construction of three big gas liquefaction plants on an island 3.5km from the mainland. Once completed, these projects will generate billions of dollars of export revenues and royalties for decades to come.
格拉德斯通的主要经济活动是由正在距离陆地3.5公里的一座岛上修建的三座大型天然气液化工厂带动的。这些项目一旦建成，将在未来数十年里为当地带来几十亿美元的出口收入以及土地使用费收入。
Gladstone, population 32,000 – where a fifth of the working population is employed in resource industries – is one reason why many Australians are not ready to write off the resources boom just yet. But at some stage in the near future other parts of the Australian economy, such as retail and construction, will need to pick up the slack and provide the jobs that will inevitably be lost in mining.
格拉德斯通有3.2万人口，其中在资源行业就业的劳动力占比高达五分之一，这也是为什么澳大利亚人还没有对资源热潮降温做好准备的原因。但在不远的将来，澳大利亚经济的其他板块——如零售、建筑等——将必须接过接力棒，为矿产行业不可避免将会出现的失业人潮提供工作岗位。
Not everybody is convinced the transition will be a smooth one.
不是每个人都认为这一转型过程将是一帆风顺的。
“We are a little sceptical of this idea and we think it will require more stimulus from the RBA, says Saul Eslake, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who says annual GDP growth will slow from 3.5 per cent this year, to 2.3 per cent in 2023. “There will be a loss of momentum and we don’t think some of these workers will find new jobs. That’s why we’ve got the unemployment rate rising to 5.9 per cent next year.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的经济学家索尔·埃斯雷克(Saul Eslake)表示：“我们对于澳大利亚经济转型持怀疑态度，我们认为澳大利亚央行有必要出台更多的经济刺激措施。埃斯雷克预计，澳大利亚今年GDP增速将放缓至3.5%，并将于2023年进一步放缓至2.3%。他指出：“澳大利亚的经济增长将失去动力，我们认为矿产领域的一部分失业工人将找不到新的工作。这也是我们认为明年澳大利亚的失业率将升至5.9%的原因。
For Australia’s minority Labor government the stakes are high. An election will be held next year and it has staked its reputation on returning the budget to a slim surplus, something that will be difficult to achieve unless commodity prices pick up.
对澳大利亚的少数派工党政府来说，这个问题关系重大。明年澳大利亚将举行大选，工党已经承诺将使财政预算恢复到少量盈余状态，但除非大宗商品价格走势好转，这个目标很难实现。
That is not an issue weighing too heavily on local officials in resource-rich areas, however.
尽管如此，对于资源丰富地区的地方领导来说，这并不是一个太严重的问题。
Martin Rush scoffs at the idea that demand for commodities is slowing. “Take a look at this, he says, pointing to a local plan showing a one-third increase in presold thermal coal shipments from the Hunter Valley by 2023. As mayor of Muswellbrook, a mining region two hours north of Sydney which feeds the world’s biggest coal export harbour in Newcastle, he is confident that a drop in energy coal prices, from about $120 a tonne at the start of the year to $90 a tonne now, will not stop work at the local pits.
马丁·拉什(Martin Rush)对有关大宗商品需求正在下降的看法不以为然。“看看这个，他指着本地的一项规划书说道。根据这项规划，到2023年猎人谷(Hunter Valley)的热媒预售量将增加三分之一。身为马瑟尔布鲁克(Muswellbrook)市长，马丁非常确信，即使热煤价格从年初的一吨120美元左右下降到现在的一吨90美元，本地矿场也不会停工。马瑟尔布鲁克是个产矿区，位于悉尼以北两个小时车程的地方，出产的煤炭运往位于纽卡斯尔(Newcastle)的世界最大煤炭出口港。
“Most of the mines were set up when the price of thermal coal was $40-$50 a tonne, he says, before rattling off a list of companies that have approached the council with plans to crank up production in local mines to offset weaker prices.
拉什表示：“大部分矿场是热能煤价格每吨40至50美元的时期创办起来的。他接着报出了一串企业名单，表示这些公司已向市政厅提出本地矿场的增产计划，以求抵消价格下降的影响。
Mr Rush says his optimism is built on strong demand for cheap electricity in China and India. But in Singleton, 50km southeast of Muswellbrook, spending on coal mine expansion projects has been put on hold and the big companies are looking to hold down costs with local union officials reporting job losses in the dozens.
拉什表示，他的乐观来源于中国和印度对廉价电力的强大需求。但在马瑟尔布鲁克以南50公里的辛格尔顿(Singleton)，许多煤矿扩张项目的投资计划已被搁置，各大公司都在寻求降低成本，当地工会官员也表示就业岗位减少了好几十个。
“We had about 130 contractors on our books. It’s now been cut back to about 90, says the founder of a local recruitment company that specialises in the mining sector. “And next year we are going to lose 40 from an open coal pit because they are going underground.
当地一家为矿产领域服务的招聘公司的创始人表示：“我们原来本子上登记的有130个承包商，但现在大概只剩下90个。明年有一个露天煤矿可能会让我们再减少40个承包商，因为他们将转入地下。
Gladstone’s LNG plants, each owned by a combination of companies including BG, Total, and the Chinese groups Sinopec and Cnooc, are all being built by US contractor Bechtel. Kevin Berg, Bechtel’s Gladstone operations manager, says 8,100 workers are building the plants. Once they are completed – which is expected to be around March 2023 – almost all of those jobs will be gone.
格拉德斯通在建的LNG工厂都由至少两家公司联合所有，这些公司包括英国天然气集团(BG)、道达尔(Total)以及来自的中石化(Sinopec)和中海油(Cnooc)。这些工厂都是由美国承包商柏克德(Bechtel)建造。该公司在格拉德斯通的运营经理凯文·伯格(Kevin Berg)表示，目前总共有8100名工人在建设这些工厂。一旦它们都建成，绝大部分岗位都会消失。预计工程将于2023年3月前后完成。
Gladstone has seen its share of dips but many locals argue that when the town’s LNG developments end there will be enough new projects to pick up the slack. But only some, such as a new coal terminal, are committed to go ahead, which has left some anxious about what might happen next.
格拉德斯通也出现了不景气迹象，但很多当地人认为，当这里的LNG项目完工的时候，肯定会有足够的新项目来弥补缺口。但目前许诺开展的只有为数有限的一些项目，包括兴建一座新的煤炭终端，这使得一些人担忧未来的境况。
“Gladstone doesn’t have a middle, says Colleen Taylor who runs a shoe shop in the centre of town. “You really haven’t got that permanent middle that you can rely on [when the mine workers move on].
市中心一家鞋店的老板科林·泰勒(Colleen Taylor)说：“格拉德斯通缺乏中间产业，（当矿产工人需要转行的时候），我们是没有这种可以起到支撑作用的中间产业的。
