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Shinzo Abe has been given a second chance. He should count himself lucky. Nothing in his first, truncated term merits another spell at the helm of the world’s third-biggest economy. At least Mr Abe has shown some humility. He has admitted that the resounding victory for his Liberal Democratic party is less an endorsement of its policies and more a rejection of the Democratic Party of Japan.
安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)又得到了一次机会。他应当为自己感到庆幸。在短暂的第一次首相任期中，他没能拿出什么出彩的政绩，以支持他重新成为全球第三大经济体的掌舵人。不过，安倍晋三这回起码表现出一点谦虚。他承认，他领导的自由民主党(LDP)在选举中大获全胜的原因，与其说是该党的政策主张得到了日本选民的认可，倒不如说日本选民抛弃了日本民主党(DPJ)。
Last time round, Mr Abe was obsessed with his vision of a “beautiful Japan, a predilection that led him down a policy cul-de-sac of whitewashing history. He upgraded the defence agency to a full-fledged ministry and set about trying to change the pacifist constitution. His popularity rapidly plummeted.
上次担任首相时，安倍晋三一门心思要建设一个“美丽的日本，这种倾向把他引向了“美化历史的政策死胡同。他把防卫厅升格为职能完善的防卫省，还着手试图修改和平宪法。结果，他的支持率直线下降。
This time, Mr Abe’s victory does owe something to the perceived Chinese territorial threat over the Senkaku islands, known as Diaoyu in China. But the new prime minister should reserve most of his attention for the economy. Here Mr Abe has sounded much more sensible. He has proposed setting an inflation target of 2-3 per cent for the Bank of Japan. This is a good idea and can be achieved without compromising central bank independence. Mr Abe should follow through on his proposal and appoint a Bank of Japan governor who is strongly committed to restoring growth and ending the cycle of deflation.
安倍晋三这次成功当选日本首相，确实得益于中日尖阁诸岛（Senkaku，中国称钓鱼岛及其附属群岛）领土争端让日本民众感到的威胁。但这位新首相应当把主要精力放在经济问题上。他在这方面的主张听起来更加理智。他建议给日本央行(BoJ)设定2%至3%的通胀目标。这是一个好主意，可以在不牺牲央行独立性的情况下得以实现。安倍晋三应当把这个建议落到实处，任命一位强烈支持恢复经济增长、终结通缩周期的央行行长。
Inflation is not a panacea, though without it not much constructive can be done. At some point taxes must rise if Japan wants to keep spending at the present level. Here the stars may finally be aligning. Under the law, a planned doubling of sales tax to 10 per cent by 2023 can be phased in only if the economy is growing. The normally parsimonious finance ministry may thus be prepared to loosen the purse strings to “buy sufficient growth to get the tax increase implemented. Japan could thus see a mini-growth spurt in 2023 that could turn the vicious deflationary circle into something more positive.
通胀不是万灵丹，但若没有通胀，恐怕难以取得太多建设性成果。如果日本想要保持目前的支出水平，到某一时点就必须加税。在这一点上，日本最终可能会迎来好运。按照目前的法律，到2023年把销售税提高一倍至10%的计划，只有在经济增长的前提下才能逐步实施。通常出手吝啬的财务省，可能因此要准备慷慨解囊了，好“买到可观的增长，让增税计划得以实施。2023年，日本经济可能出现小幅增长，并可能扭转通缩的恶性循环，呈现更积极的态势。
Even this will not be enough. The economy needs further deregulation to help cut energy costs and open up new areas of investment and employment. The inflationary path is a narrow one. Savers’ wealth will be eroded. The interest rate on the debt will rise. And, if wages do not respond to inflationary expectations, living standards will be harmed. Still, this is the only sensible course open. Mr Abe should seize what looks like a rare opportunity – and leave his dreams of a beautiful Japan for another day.
即便这样也还不够。日本经济还需要进一步放松管制，以便减低能源成本，并开辟新的投资与就业领域。通胀之路是一条狭路，储户的财富将会缩水。借债利率将会上升。同时，如果工资水平不根据通胀预期相应调整，民众的生活水平也将会下降。即便如此，通胀仍是唯一行得通的道路。安倍晋三应当抓住这个看来难得的良机，暂且把“美丽的日本之梦留给未来。
Shinzo Abe has been given a second chance. He should count himself lucky. Nothing in his first, truncated term merits another spell at the helm of the world’s third-biggest economy. At least Mr Abe has shown some humility. He has admitted that the resounding victory for his Liberal Democratic party is less an endorsement of its policies and more a rejection of the Democratic Party of Japan.
安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)又得到了一次机会。他应当为自己感到庆幸。在短暂的第一次首相任期中，他没能拿出什么出彩的政绩，以支持他重新成为全球第三大经济体的掌舵人。不过，安倍晋三这回起码表现出一点谦虚。他承认，他领导的自由民主党(LDP)在选举中大获全胜的原因，与其说是该党的政策主张得到了日本选民的认可，倒不如说日本选民抛弃了日本民主党(DPJ)。
Last time round, Mr Abe was obsessed with his vision of a “beautiful Japan, a predilection that led him down a policy cul-de-sac of whitewashing history. He upgraded the defence agency to a full-fledged ministry and set about trying to change the pacifist constitution. His popularity rapidly plummeted.
上次担任首相时，安倍晋三一门心思要建设一个“美丽的日本，这种倾向把他引向了“美化历史的政策死胡同。他把防卫厅升格为职能完善的防卫省，还着手试图修改和平宪法。结果，他的支持率直线下降。
This time, Mr Abe’s victory does owe something to the perceived Chinese territorial threat over the Senkaku islands, known as Diaoyu in China. But the new prime minister should reserve most of his attention for the economy. Here Mr Abe has sounded much more sensible. He has proposed setting an inflation target of 2-3 per cent for the Bank of Japan. This is a good idea and can be achieved without compromising central bank independence. Mr Abe should follow through on his proposal and appoint a Bank of Japan governor who is strongly committed to restoring growth and ending the cycle of deflation.
安倍晋三这次成功当选日本首相，确实得益于中日尖阁诸岛（Senkaku，中国称钓鱼岛及其附属群岛）领土争端让日本民众感到的威胁。但这位新首相应当把主要精力放在经济问题上。他在这方面的主张听起来更加理智。他建议给日本央行(BoJ)设定2%至3%的通胀目标。这是一个好主意，可以在不牺牲央行独立性的情况下得以实现。安倍晋三应当把这个建议落到实处，任命一位强烈支持恢复经济增长、终结通缩周期的央行行长。
Inflation is not a panacea, though without it not much constructive can be done. At some point taxes must rise if Japan wants to keep spending at the present level. Here the stars may finally be aligning. Under the law, a planned doubling of sales tax to 10 per cent by 2023 can be phased in only if the economy is growing. The normally parsimonious finance ministry may thus be prepared to loosen the purse strings to “buy sufficient growth to get the tax increase implemented. Japan could thus see a mini-growth spurt in 2023 that could turn the vicious deflationary circle into something more positive.
通胀不是万灵丹，但若没有通胀，恐怕难以取得太多建设性成果。如果日本想要保持目前的支出水平，到某一时点就必须加税。在这一点上，日本最终可能会迎来好运。按照目前的法律，到2023年把销售税提高一倍至10%的计划，只有在经济增长的前提下才能逐步实施。通常出手吝啬的财务省，可能因此要准备慷慨解囊了，好“买到可观的增长，让增税计划得以实施。2023年，日本经济可能出现小幅增长，并可能扭转通缩的恶性循环，呈现更积极的态势。
Even this will not be enough. The economy needs further deregulation to help cut energy costs and open up new areas of investment and employment. The inflationary path is a narrow one. Savers’ wealth will be eroded. The interest rate on the debt will rise. And, if wages do not respond to inflationary expectations, living standards will be harmed. Still, this is the only sensible course open. Mr Abe should seize what looks like a rare opportunity – and leave his dreams of a beautiful Japan for another day.
即便这样也还不够。日本经济还需要进一步放松管制，以便减低能源成本，并开辟新的投资与就业领域。通胀之路是一条狭路，储户的财富将会缩水。借债利率将会上升。同时，如果工资水平不根据通胀预期相应调整，民众的生活水平也将会下降。即便如此，通胀仍是唯一行得通的道路。安倍晋三应当抓住这个看来难得的良机，暂且把“美丽的日本之梦留给未来。
