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Rare earth elements, as every commodities nerd knows, are in fact not very rare at all. Some, such as cerium and lanthanum, are among the more abundant elements in the earth’s crust.
对大宗商品了如指掌的人都知道，稀土元素根本谈不上特别稀有。比如铈、镧等元素，反而属于地壳中含量较为丰富的元素。
But it is unusual to find the 17 elements that are classified as rare earths in sufficient quantities for economic extraction.
不过，要找到储量足够、适合商业开采的17种稀土元素矿藏，仍是件难事。
In 2011, however, concerns over the scarcity of these elements – which are now used in everything from mobile phones and lightbulbs to weapons systems – sent prices skyrocketing.
但在2011年，对这些元素稀缺性的担忧却使其价格一路飙升——它们如今已被用于从手机、灯泡到武器系统的多种产品。
“There was a bubble in 2011, after demand for rare earths had rebounded from the financial crisis and the Chinese cut export quotas, reducing supply, explains Carolyn Dennis, analyst at Dundee Securities. “Fears of a shortage caused stockpiling, driving prices to unsustainable levels.
邓迪证券(Dundee Securities)分析师卡洛琳·丹尼斯解释道：“由于稀土需求从金融危机中恢复过来，加上中国削减出口限额导致供应减少，2011年稀土市场出现了泡沫。对短缺的担忧引发囤积，将价格抬高到了难以维系的水平。
Since then they have plunged, with prices for some rare earths falling as much as 90 per cent in international markets. This year alone, prices for the most important elements have fallen between 50 and 70 per cent, according to Industrial Minerals, a specialist publication that monitors rare earths trading.
从那之后，国际市场上稀土价格大跌，部分品种甚至暴跌90%之多。关注稀土交易的专业刊物《工业矿物》(Industrial Minerals)称，最重要稀土品种的价格单是在今年就下跌了50%至70%不等。
Nevertheless, a number of mining companies are still hoping to capitalise on the strategic importance of these rare raw materials.
然而，一些矿业公司仍然希望在这些稀有原料的战略重要性上做些文章。
China currently accounts for more than 90 per cent of global supply – partly because their production can be a messy and environmentally problematic business – but some miners are trying to develop rare earths projects to meet demand for production outside China, particularly from countries such as Japan and Korea.
中国目前占全球稀土供应量的逾90%，部分原因在于生产混乱且不注意环保。但一些矿商仍在试图开发稀土项目，以满足在中国境外、尤其是日韩等国的稀土需求。
It has not been an easy 12 months for the sector’s leading companies, though.
不过，该领域的主要公司度过了并不舒坦的12个月。
Molycorp and Lynas – the most advanced in terms of developing commercially producing mines – have had a torrid year.
在商业化开采稀土矿方面处于领先水平的莫利矿业公司(Molycorp)和Lynas，这一年的处境极为糟糕。
Molycorp’s share price has fallen nearly 60 per cent this year and, earlier this month, its chief executive resigned, following a range of operational and financial difficulties.
莫利矿业公司的股价今年累计蒸发近60%。在经历一系列运营和财务困境后，公司首席执行官于本月早些时候辞职。
Australia’s Lynas, shares in which have lost more than 40 per cent of their value, has been hit by delays to its processing plant in Malaysia, which faces local opposition.
澳大利亚的Lynas股价累计损失逾40%。其在马来西亚的加工厂项目因遭遇当地反对而延期，令公司业绩受到了拖累。
Analysts suggest that they will not be the only companies to run into problems.
分析师称，面临问题的将不仅限于这两家公司。
“The supply chain does not need the several hundred companies that are vying to bring projects along, says Gareth Hatch, the founding principal of Technology Metals Research. “At present, we are tracking 45 projects that are at a more advanced stage of development but I doubt that more than seven or eight will be standing in a few years’ time.
“供应链并不需要几百家公司争相开发项目，Technology Metals Research的主要创始人加雷斯·哈奇(Gareth Hatch)说，“目前，我们正在追踪45个进入开发后期的项目，但我怀疑有超过7、8个项目在几年后无法存活。
The relatively small market for rare earths is one constraint for would-be miners, with the elements used in only small quantities in end-products. Global demand of 115,000 tonnes this year is forecast to rise to 200,000-240,000 tonnes by 2023, according to rare earths consultancy Imcoa.
稀土在最终产品中的使用量很低，市场规模较小对潜在矿商造成了限制。稀土咨询机构澳大利亚工业矿物咨询公司(IMCOA)预计，至2023年，全球稀土需求量将从今年的11.5万吨增长到20万至24万吨。
Depressed equity markets have also put pressure on so-called resources juniors – the exploration and early stage development companies – across the sector.
不景气的股市也对该领域的“初级资源企业(resources junior)构成压力。所谓“初级资源企业，指的是从事勘探和早期开发的公司。
“For resources juniors, the belief is that as many as 500 small-cap exploration companies will disappear over the next 12 months, unless there is an improvement in their ability to raise equity capital, says Peter Cashin, chief executive of Quest Rare Minerals.
Quest Rare Minerals首席执行官彼得·卡辛(Peter Cashin)说：“至于初级资源企业，业界认为将有多达500家小型勘探公司在未来12个月内倒闭，除非它们能够提高募集股本的能力。
In trying to pick rare-earth miners with better long-term prospects, investors and analysts are increasingly focusing on projects that target production of the so-called “heavies – a rarer subset of the elements.
为筛选出长期前景更看好的稀土矿商，投资者和分析师逐渐将眼光投向“重稀土的生产项目。“重稀土是稀土元素中更为稀缺的一类。
In particular, the US Department of Energy has designated five of the 17 rare earths as “critical, with supply deficits expected until 2023.
美国能源部(US Department of Energy)特别指定17种稀土元素中的5种为“关键元素，它们的供应不足局面预计将持续到2023年。
Neodymium, a light rare earth, and dysprosium, a heavy, are used in permanent magnets for wind turbines or electric vehicles.
轻稀土元素钕和重稀土元素镝用于制造风力涡轮机和电动车辆中的永磁体。
Europium, terbium and yttrium, all heavies, are used in flatscreen electronics and energy-saving lightbulbs, areas projected to have strong demand growth.
铕、铽和钇均是重稀土元素。它们用于制造平板电子产品和节能灯泡，这些领域预计将出现强劲的需求增长。
Molycorp and Lynas look set to satisfy demand for light elements, with room for a third operator, such as Canada’s Iamgold, which could quickly start up byproduct production at an existing mine.
莫利矿业公司和Lynas似乎将能够满足轻稀土元素的需求，而其他矿商（如加拿大的Iamgold）可能很快将在一处现有矿藏生产副产品。
But analysts point to Quest’s Strange Lake project in Quebec, as well as projects run by Tasman Metals in Sweden, Matamec Explorations and Avalon Rare Metals in Canada and Alkane Resources in Australia, as those nearest to going in to production of heavy rare earths.
但分析师指出，Quest在魁北克的Strange Lake项目、Tasman Metals在瑞典的项目、Matamec Explorations和阿瓦朗稀有金属(Avalon Rare Metals)在加拿大的项目以及Alkane Resources在澳大利亚的项目，都是最接近投产重稀土的项目。
“Most of the deposits that are richer in the heavy rare earths contain rare-earth-bearing minerals that have never been processed before, notes Mr Hatch at Technology Metals Research. “With enough time and money, companies can eventually find a technical solution. For some of these projects, however, the cost of production could outweigh the value of the material that you produce.
“大多数富含重稀土的矿床含有此前从未加工过的含稀土矿物，Technology Metals Research的哈奇表示，“如果有足够的时间和资金，矿业公司终将能找到技术解决方案。但就部分项目而言，其生产成本可能会高于产品的价值。
Also of concern is the extent to which new technology or alternative materials will reduce manufacturers’ usage of rare earths – especially if their prices start to rise again.
另外值得关注的是，新技术或替代材料将能在多大程度上减少生产商对稀土的使用，尤其是如果稀土价格重新走高的话。
Investors will therefore be looking for companies that can crack the metallurgy of processing heavy rare earths and secure investment or offtake agreements with end users.
因此，能够解决重稀土加工难题、与最终用户敲定投资或购买协议的公司将获得投资者的青睐。
“The difference this time round is that there is increased investor knowledge about the lights versus the heavies and which elements are really critical, says Ms Dennis at Dundee Securities.
邓迪证券的丹尼斯表示：“这次的不同之处在于，投资者越来越清楚轻稀土和重稀土的各自利弊，以及哪些品种才是真正重要的品种。
“Investors understand that the end markets for these elements are small and there are more companies available for investment than will be needed by the market at the end of the day.
“投资者明白，稀土的最终市场规模很小，归根结底，可投资公司的数量上超过了市场的需求。
Rare earth elements, as every commodities nerd knows, are in fact not very rare at all. Some, such as cerium and lanthanum, are among the more abundant elements in the earth’s crust.
对大宗商品了如指掌的人都知道，稀土元素根本谈不上特别稀有。比如铈、镧等元素，反而属于地壳中含量较为丰富的元素。
But it is unusual to find the 17 elements that are classified as rare earths in sufficient quantities for economic extraction.
不过，要找到储量足够、适合商业开采的17种稀土元素矿藏，仍是件难事。
In 2011, however, concerns over the scarcity of these elements – which are now used in everything from mobile phones and lightbulbs to weapons systems – sent prices skyrocketing.
但在2011年，对这些元素稀缺性的担忧却使其价格一路飙升——它们如今已被用于从手机、灯泡到武器系统的多种产品。
“There was a bubble in 2011, after demand for rare earths had rebounded from the financial crisis and the Chinese cut export quotas, reducing supply, explains Carolyn Dennis, analyst at Dundee Securities. “Fears of a shortage caused stockpiling, driving prices to unsustainable levels.
邓迪证券(Dundee Securities)分析师卡洛琳·丹尼斯解释道：“由于稀土需求从金融危机中恢复过来，加上中国削减出口限额导致供应减少，2011年稀土市场出现了泡沫。对短缺的担忧引发囤积，将价格抬高到了难以维系的水平。
Since then they have plunged, with prices for some rare earths falling as much as 90 per cent in international markets. This year alone, prices for the most important elements have fallen between 50 and 70 per cent, according to Industrial Minerals, a specialist publication that monitors rare earths trading.
从那之后，国际市场上稀土价格大跌，部分品种甚至暴跌90%之多。关注稀土交易的专业刊物《工业矿物》(Industrial Minerals)称，最重要稀土品种的价格单是在今年就下跌了50%至70%不等。
Nevertheless, a number of mining companies are still hoping to capitalise on the strategic importance of these rare raw materials.
然而，一些矿业公司仍然希望在这些稀有原料的战略重要性上做些文章。
China currently accounts for more than 90 per cent of global supply – partly because their production can be a messy and environmentally problematic business – but some miners are trying to develop rare earths projects to meet demand for production outside China, particularly from countries such as Japan and Korea.
中国目前占全球稀土供应量的逾90%，部分原因在于生产混乱且不注意环保。但一些矿商仍在试图开发稀土项目，以满足在中国境外、尤其是日韩等国的稀土需求。
It has not been an easy 12 months for the sector’s leading companies, though.
不过，该领域的主要公司度过了并不舒坦的12个月。
Molycorp and Lynas – the most advanced in terms of developing commercially producing mines – have had a torrid year.
在商业化开采稀土矿方面处于领先水平的莫利矿业公司(Molycorp)和Lynas，这一年的处境极为糟糕。
Molycorp’s share price has fallen nearly 60 per cent this year and, earlier this month, its chief executive resigned, following a range of operational and financial difficulties.
莫利矿业公司的股价今年累计蒸发近60%。在经历一系列运营和财务困境后，公司首席执行官于本月早些时候辞职。
Australia’s Lynas, shares in which have lost more than 40 per cent of their value, has been hit by delays to its processing plant in Malaysia, which faces local opposition.
澳大利亚的Lynas股价累计损失逾40%。其在马来西亚的加工厂项目因遭遇当地反对而延期，令公司业绩受到了拖累。
Analysts suggest that they will not be the only companies to run into problems.
分析师称，面临问题的将不仅限于这两家公司。
“The supply chain does not need the several hundred companies that are vying to bring projects along, says Gareth Hatch, the founding principal of Technology Metals Research. “At present, we are tracking 45 projects that are at a more advanced stage of development but I doubt that more than seven or eight will be standing in a few years’ time.
“供应链并不需要几百家公司争相开发项目，Technology Metals Research的主要创始人加雷斯·哈奇(Gareth Hatch)说，“目前，我们正在追踪45个进入开发后期的项目，但我怀疑有超过7、8个项目在几年后无法存活。
The relatively small market for rare earths is one constraint for would-be miners, with the elements used in only small quantities in end-products. Global demand of 115,000 tonnes this year is forecast to rise to 200,000-240,000 tonnes by 2023, according to rare earths consultancy Imcoa.
稀土在最终产品中的使用量很低，市场规模较小对潜在矿商造成了限制。稀土咨询机构澳大利亚工业矿物咨询公司(IMCOA)预计，至2023年，全球稀土需求量将从今年的11.5万吨增长到20万至24万吨。
Depressed equity markets have also put pressure on so-called resources juniors – the exploration and early stage development companies – across the sector.
不景气的股市也对该领域的“初级资源企业(resources junior)构成压力。所谓“初级资源企业，指的是从事勘探和早期开发的公司。
“For resources juniors, the belief is that as many as 500 small-cap exploration companies will disappear over the next 12 months, unless there is an improvement in their ability to raise equity capital, says Peter Cashin, chief executive of Quest Rare Minerals.
Quest Rare Minerals首席执行官彼得·卡辛(Peter Cashin)说：“至于初级资源企业，业界认为将有多达500家小型勘探公司在未来12个月内倒闭，除非它们能够提高募集股本的能力。
In trying to pick rare-earth miners with better long-term prospects, investors and analysts are increasingly focusing on projects that target production of the so-called “heavies – a rarer subset of the elements.
为筛选出长期前景更看好的稀土矿商，投资者和分析师逐渐将眼光投向“重稀土的生产项目。“重稀土是稀土元素中更为稀缺的一类。
In particular, the US Department of Energy has designated five of the 17 rare earths as “critical, with supply deficits expected until 2023.
美国能源部(US Department of Energy)特别指定17种稀土元素中的5种为“关键元素，它们的供应不足局面预计将持续到2023年。
Neodymium, a light rare earth, and dysprosium, a heavy, are used in permanent magnets for wind turbines or electric vehicles.
轻稀土元素钕和重稀土元素镝用于制造风力涡轮机和电动车辆中的永磁体。
Europium, terbium and yttrium, all heavies, are used in flatscreen electronics and energy-saving lightbulbs, areas projected to have strong demand growth.
铕、铽和钇均是重稀土元素。它们用于制造平板电子产品和节能灯泡，这些领域预计将出现强劲的需求增长。
Molycorp and Lynas look set to satisfy demand for light elements, with room for a third operator, such as Canada’s Iamgold, which could quickly start up byproduct production at an existing mine.
莫利矿业公司和Lynas似乎将能够满足轻稀土元素的需求，而其他矿商（如加拿大的Iamgold）可能很快将在一处现有矿藏生产副产品。
But analysts point to Quest’s Strange Lake project in Quebec, as well as projects run by Tasman Metals in Sweden, Matamec Explorations and Avalon Rare Metals in Canada and Alkane Resources in Australia, as those nearest to going in to production of heavy rare earths.
但分析师指出，Quest在魁北克的Strange Lake项目、Tasman Metals在瑞典的项目、Matamec Explorations和阿瓦朗稀有金属(Avalon Rare Metals)在加拿大的项目以及Alkane Resources在澳大利亚的项目，都是最接近投产重稀土的项目。
“Most of the deposits that are richer in the heavy rare earths contain rare-earth-bearing minerals that have never been processed before, notes Mr Hatch at Technology Metals Research. “With enough time and money, companies can eventually find a technical solution. For some of these projects, however, the cost of production could outweigh the value of the material that you produce.
“大多数富含重稀土的矿床含有此前从未加工过的含稀土矿物，Technology Metals Research的哈奇表示，“如果有足够的时间和资金，矿业公司终将能找到技术解决方案。但就部分项目而言，其生产成本可能会高于产品的价值。
Also of concern is the extent to which new technology or alternative materials will reduce manufacturers’ usage of rare earths – especially if their prices start to rise again.
另外值得关注的是，新技术或替代材料将能在多大程度上减少生产商对稀土的使用，尤其是如果稀土价格重新走高的话。
Investors will therefore be looking for companies that can crack the metallurgy of processing heavy rare earths and secure investment or offtake agreements with end users.
因此，能够解决重稀土加工难题、与最终用户敲定投资或购买协议的公司将获得投资者的青睐。
“The difference this time round is that there is increased investor knowledge about the lights versus the heavies and which elements are really critical, says Ms Dennis at Dundee Securities.
邓迪证券的丹尼斯表示：“这次的不同之处在于，投资者越来越清楚轻稀土和重稀土的各自利弊，以及哪些品种才是真正重要的品种。
“Investors understand that the end markets for these elements are small and there are more companies available for investment than will be needed by the market at the end of the day.
“投资者明白，稀土的最终市场规模很小，归根结底，可投资公司的数量上超过了市场的需求。
