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New Year resolutions are made to be broken. So politicians should spare us the customary cascade of empty promises on January 1. There is no harm, though, in drawing lessons from experience. In this spirit, here are a few rules of the road political leaders might usefully ponder as they map a route for 2023.
新年计划注定是不会被贯彻执行的。因此政客们应当省省力气，不要继续在每年1月1日这天向民众做出大量空洞的承诺。不过从过往经历中总结经验教训则没有坏处。本着这种积极的态度，当各国政治领袖们在制定2023年的前进路线图时，参考以下几条原则或许会有所帮助：
Make friends and?.?.?.
广交朋友以及……
America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have testified eloquently to the limits of hard power. Military muscle will always matter, but in a world tightly threaded by economic interdependence, making friends and influencing people is every bit as important.
美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的战争雄辩地证明了硬实力的局限性。军事实力一直非常重要，但在一个由经贸相互依存紧密联系起来的世界里，广交朋友并发挥影响力同样至关重要。
Expectations are that Xi Jinping will take a harder line than the departing Hu Jintao in asserting Chinese power. Tensions between Beijing and its neighbours over conflicting claims in the South and East China Seas are unlikely to be eased by the election in Japan of the more nationalist government of Shinzo Abe.
外界预计，习近平在展示中国实力方面将采取比即将卸任的胡锦涛更为强硬的立常鉴于民族主义倾向更强的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)阵营在日本大选中胜出，中国和其邻国在南海与东海海域领土争端引发的紧张局势很可能还将延续。
Mr Xi, however, might reflect on what has happened since China cast aside Deng Xiaoping’s bide-your-time approach to international relations. China’s neighbours have turned against it and President Barack Obama’s “pivot has seen America’s return as a Pacific power. China cannot wage economic war against Japan without significant cost to itself. Even great powers need allies.
但习近平或许会有所反思，自从中国将邓小平在国际关系领域提出的“韬光养晦原则抛到一边以来究竟发生了什么。中国的邻国纷纷对华反目，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)将“战略重心转向亚洲则使美国重新成为影响太平洋地区局势的重要力量。中国如若与日本开打经济战，则自身也必将蒙受重大损失。超级大国同样需要盟友。
Elsewhere, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu have often seemed to exult in isolation. The result? Russia’s global influence has been reduced to obstructionism at the UN. Israel is beginning to look very much alone.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)一直以来似乎都喜欢奉行单边主义。结果如何呢？俄罗斯现在只能以故意阻挠联合国(UN)决议通过的方式发挥国际影响力。而以色列则显得格外形单影只。
Do something
有所行动
The most frequently forgotten lesson of politics is that doing nothing is a policy choice – and one that can be every bit as risky as being decisive. France’s President Fran ois Hollande is among those who would do well to recognise the dangers of inaction. My friends in Paris tell me that the president is fully apprised of the urgent need to restore economic competitiveness in order to avoid the fate of some of France’s eurozone partners. So far, however, Mr Hollande has been content to do not very much. Change forced by a crisis of confidence in the markets would be altogether more painful – for the president and for French voters.
在政治领域最常被人忘记的一点是，什么都不做也是一种政策选择——并且可能与果断行动一样颇具风险。有些人最好明白不采取行动的危害，比如说法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(Fran ois Hollande)。我在巴黎的朋友告诉我，奥朗德非常清楚尽快恢复法国经济竞争力的紧迫性，只有这样才能避免落到和某些欧元区成员国同样的命运。但到目前为止，奥朗德仅满足于采取非常有限的措施。对于奥朗德以及法国选民来说，由市场信心危机倒逼的改革可能比主动改革更加痛苦。
There is a broader lesson here for the eurozone. Angela Merkel may have emerged as Europe’s undisputed leader, but her obsessively cautious approach to the euro crisis has come with a sizeable price tag. If the currency now looks safe, it is because of the activism of the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi. The danger is that Mr Draghi’s audacity has encouraged governments – creditors and debtors alike – to put off again the uncomfortable choices needed to ensure sustained recovery.
对于整个欧元区来说，也应该吸取教训。安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)或许已经成为无可争议的欧洲领袖，但她在欧元危机中过于谨慎的应对措施同样带来了高昂的政策成本。如果说目前欧元看起来较为安全，功劳应当归于欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的积极活动。而当前的潜在风险在于，德拉吉的大胆举措促使欧元区各成员国政府——无论是债权国还是债务国——再度拖延实现经济可持续复苏所必需做出的艰难抉择。
Walk and?.?.?.
一边前进，一边……
Too many leaders think they can do only one thing at once. They succumb to the politics of either/or. It should be both/and. The message from Washington is that Mr Obama has set the rebuilding of America as the ambition for his second term. Intractable foreign-policy issues – most obviously the stand-off between Israel and the Palestinians – are destined to remain on the back burner. Didn’t someone once say a US president should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time?
很多领导人都认为，他们在一段时期只能做一件事。这些领导人屈从于“非此即彼的政治抉择，但事实上他们完全能够做到“两者同时进行。来自华盛顿的消息称，奥巴马已将恢复美国活力作为自己第二届任期的执政目标。而一些棘手的外交政策问题——最显而易见的包括以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的僵持状态——则将毫无悬念地被搁置起来。不是有人曾经说过，身为美国总统就应该能够一边走路一边嚼口香糖。
Getting the economy right is going to be at the top of every leader’s attention. The reality, though, is that the world will not stop to allow Mr Obama to tend to America’s domestic challenges. For one thing, Mr Netanyahu looks pretty much determined to pull the US into another Middle East war – this time against Iran. For another, much as it would sometimes like things to be otherwise, the US remains the indispensable power. The unipolar moment may have passed, but there are few serious problems around the world that can be solved without US engagement.
使经济重新走上正轨也将成为各国领导人最重要的政策目标。但现实情况是，地球不会因为要给奥巴马腾出时间处理美国国内问题而停止转动。一方面，内塔尼亚胡似乎已经打定主意要将美国拉入另一场中东战争——不过此次是对伊朗开战。而另一方面，美国在国际领域仍是一支不可或缺的影响力量，虽然某些时候美国或许希望形势会有所不同。单极模式或许已经成为过去，但是如果没有美国的参与，国际领域目前存在的大量严峻问题依然很难得到解决。
Think ahead
前瞻思维
Here’s one for David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister. The hapless Mr Cameron has made the mistake of failing to recognise that what might seem clever tactics often drive politicians into strategic cul-de-sacs. After a year spent appeasing and occasionally pleasing the hardline eurosceptics in his Conservative party, he has suddenly woken up to the fact that Britain is heading for the exit of the EU.
这一条是针对英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)的。倒霉的卡梅伦犯了一个错误，他未能认识到，某些看似聪明的小伎俩常常会将政治家们逼入战略上的死胡同。此前卡梅伦花了一年时间安抚、并不时讨好保守党内强硬的欧洲怀疑论者，现在他在猛然惊醒后却发现，英国正向着退出欧盟的方向前进。
I do not think that this was Mr Cameron’s aim. But casual promises to the eurosceptics that he can secure “a new settlement allowing Britain to pick and choose in its relationship with the bloc have collided with the uncomfortable fact that the other 26 members are not so keen on the idea. Ms Merkel has been offended by a clumsy attempt to blackmail the eurozone into making concessions in return for British consent to closer integration. Mr Hollande has already had his fill of perfidious Albion. Mr Cameron is left promising a referendum that could leave Britain stranded on the margins of its own continent.
我不认为退出欧盟是卡梅伦的政策目标。他对欧洲怀疑论者轻易许下了承诺，称自己能确保达成“一个新的安排，使英国在与欧盟的关系方面能有挑拣和选择的余地。但令人不那么愉快的现实是，其余26个欧盟成员国对英国这种一厢情愿的想法并不感冒。英国曾试图威胁欧元区做出让步，以此作为英国同意加强一体化的条件。但这一笨拙的企图冒犯了德国总理默克尔。法国总统奥朗德也已受够了背信弃义的英国人。卡梅伦目前只能承诺将举行一次全民公投，而这可能导致英国进一步陷入在欧洲被边缘化的困境。
And finally?.?.?.?
最后一点是，公平游戏（或者只是相对公平）
Play fair(ish)
无论东方还是西方，南半球还是北半球，民主国家还是独裁专制国家，各国现任领导人目前面临的最大威胁都是民众对社会不公日益强烈的不满情绪。在发达经济体中，人们普遍认为（事实通常也确实如此），富有阶层掠夺了全球化带来的全部好处，而其他社会群体则被迫背上财政紧缩的负担。如果说中东地区近期的暴乱是由一颗火花引发的，那么社会各阶层对腐败问题普遍感到愤怒就是这颗火花产生的原因。习近平警告称，贪污腐败可能导致颠覆中国共产党的领导权。他是对的。虽然没有人会奢望平均主义的乌托邦，但新老中产阶级都在用一种厌恶的眼光冷眼看着仅占人口总数1%的最富有人群所享受的各种特权。
West and east, north and south, democratic and authoritarian – the biggest threat to incumbent leaders flows from a growing resentment about unfairness. In advanced economies, the perception (and often the reality) is that the wealthy have grabbed all the gains of globalisation while the rest have been handed the burden of austerity. If there was a single spark for the uprisings in the Middle East it came from popular rage at corruption at every level of society. Mr Xi has warned that graft could overturn the rule of China’s Communist party. He is right. No one expects an egalitarian utopia, but middle classes old and new are looking with some menace at the privileges of the 1 per cent.
New Year resolutions are made to be broken. So politicians should spare us the customary cascade of empty promises on January 1. There is no harm, though, in drawing lessons from experience. In this spirit, here are a few rules of the road political leaders might usefully ponder as they map a route for 2023.
新年计划注定是不会被贯彻执行的。因此政客们应当省省力气，不要继续在每年1月1日这天向民众做出大量空洞的承诺。不过从过往经历中总结经验教训则没有坏处。本着这种积极的态度，当各国政治领袖们在制定2023年的前进路线图时，参考以下几条原则或许会有所帮助：
Make friends and?.?.?.
广交朋友以及……
America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have testified eloquently to the limits of hard power. Military muscle will always matter, but in a world tightly threaded by economic interdependence, making friends and influencing people is every bit as important.
美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的战争雄辩地证明了硬实力的局限性。军事实力一直非常重要，但在一个由经贸相互依存紧密联系起来的世界里，广交朋友并发挥影响力同样至关重要。
Expectations are that Xi Jinping will take a harder line than the departing Hu Jintao in asserting Chinese power. Tensions between Beijing and its neighbours over conflicting claims in the South and East China Seas are unlikely to be eased by the election in Japan of the more nationalist government of Shinzo Abe.
外界预计，习近平在展示中国实力方面将采取比即将卸任的胡锦涛更为强硬的立常鉴于民族主义倾向更强的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)阵营在日本大选中胜出，中国和其邻国在南海与东海海域领土争端引发的紧张局势很可能还将延续。
Mr Xi, however, might reflect on what has happened since China cast aside Deng Xiaoping’s bide-your-time approach to international relations. China’s neighbours have turned against it and President Barack Obama’s “pivot has seen America’s return as a Pacific power. China cannot wage economic war against Japan without significant cost to itself. Even great powers need allies.
但习近平或许会有所反思，自从中国将邓小平在国际关系领域提出的“韬光养晦原则抛到一边以来究竟发生了什么。中国的邻国纷纷对华反目，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)将“战略重心转向亚洲则使美国重新成为影响太平洋地区局势的重要力量。中国如若与日本开打经济战，则自身也必将蒙受重大损失。超级大国同样需要盟友。
Elsewhere, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu have often seemed to exult in isolation. The result? Russia’s global influence has been reduced to obstructionism at the UN. Israel is beginning to look very much alone.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)一直以来似乎都喜欢奉行单边主义。结果如何呢？俄罗斯现在只能以故意阻挠联合国(UN)决议通过的方式发挥国际影响力。而以色列则显得格外形单影只。
Do something
有所行动
The most frequently forgotten lesson of politics is that doing nothing is a policy choice – and one that can be every bit as risky as being decisive. France’s President Fran ois Hollande is among those who would do well to recognise the dangers of inaction. My friends in Paris tell me that the president is fully apprised of the urgent need to restore economic competitiveness in order to avoid the fate of some of France’s eurozone partners. So far, however, Mr Hollande has been content to do not very much. Change forced by a crisis of confidence in the markets would be altogether more painful – for the president and for French voters.
在政治领域最常被人忘记的一点是，什么都不做也是一种政策选择——并且可能与果断行动一样颇具风险。有些人最好明白不采取行动的危害，比如说法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(Fran ois Hollande)。我在巴黎的朋友告诉我，奥朗德非常清楚尽快恢复法国经济竞争力的紧迫性，只有这样才能避免落到和某些欧元区成员国同样的命运。但到目前为止，奥朗德仅满足于采取非常有限的措施。对于奥朗德以及法国选民来说，由市场信心危机倒逼的改革可能比主动改革更加痛苦。
There is a broader lesson here for the eurozone. Angela Merkel may have emerged as Europe’s undisputed leader, but her obsessively cautious approach to the euro crisis has come with a sizeable price tag. If the currency now looks safe, it is because of the activism of the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi. The danger is that Mr Draghi’s audacity has encouraged governments – creditors and debtors alike – to put off again the uncomfortable choices needed to ensure sustained recovery.
对于整个欧元区来说，也应该吸取教训。安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)或许已经成为无可争议的欧洲领袖，但她在欧元危机中过于谨慎的应对措施同样带来了高昂的政策成本。如果说目前欧元看起来较为安全，功劳应当归于欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的积极活动。而当前的潜在风险在于，德拉吉的大胆举措促使欧元区各成员国政府——无论是债权国还是债务国——再度拖延实现经济可持续复苏所必需做出的艰难抉择。
Walk and?.?.?.
一边前进，一边……
Too many leaders think they can do only one thing at once. They succumb to the politics of either/or. It should be both/and. The message from Washington is that Mr Obama has set the rebuilding of America as the ambition for his second term. Intractable foreign-policy issues – most obviously the stand-off between Israel and the Palestinians – are destined to remain on the back burner. Didn’t someone once say a US president should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time?
很多领导人都认为，他们在一段时期只能做一件事。这些领导人屈从于“非此即彼的政治抉择，但事实上他们完全能够做到“两者同时进行。来自华盛顿的消息称，奥巴马已将恢复美国活力作为自己第二届任期的执政目标。而一些棘手的外交政策问题——最显而易见的包括以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的僵持状态——则将毫无悬念地被搁置起来。不是有人曾经说过，身为美国总统就应该能够一边走路一边嚼口香糖。
Getting the economy right is going to be at the top of every leader’s attention. The reality, though, is that the world will not stop to allow Mr Obama to tend to America’s domestic challenges. For one thing, Mr Netanyahu looks pretty much determined to pull the US into another Middle East war – this time against Iran. For another, much as it would sometimes like things to be otherwise, the US remains the indispensable power. The unipolar moment may have passed, but there are few serious problems around the world that can be solved without US engagement.
使经济重新走上正轨也将成为各国领导人最重要的政策目标。但现实情况是，地球不会因为要给奥巴马腾出时间处理美国国内问题而停止转动。一方面，内塔尼亚胡似乎已经打定主意要将美国拉入另一场中东战争——不过此次是对伊朗开战。而另一方面，美国在国际领域仍是一支不可或缺的影响力量，虽然某些时候美国或许希望形势会有所不同。单极模式或许已经成为过去，但是如果没有美国的参与，国际领域目前存在的大量严峻问题依然很难得到解决。
Think ahead
前瞻思维
Here’s one for David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister. The hapless Mr Cameron has made the mistake of failing to recognise that what might seem clever tactics often drive politicians into strategic cul-de-sacs. After a year spent appeasing and occasionally pleasing the hardline eurosceptics in his Conservative party, he has suddenly woken up to the fact that Britain is heading for the exit of the EU.
这一条是针对英国首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)的。倒霉的卡梅伦犯了一个错误，他未能认识到，某些看似聪明的小伎俩常常会将政治家们逼入战略上的死胡同。此前卡梅伦花了一年时间安抚、并不时讨好保守党内强硬的欧洲怀疑论者，现在他在猛然惊醒后却发现，英国正向着退出欧盟的方向前进。
I do not think that this was Mr Cameron’s aim. But casual promises to the eurosceptics that he can secure “a new settlement allowing Britain to pick and choose in its relationship with the bloc have collided with the uncomfortable fact that the other 26 members are not so keen on the idea. Ms Merkel has been offended by a clumsy attempt to blackmail the eurozone into making concessions in return for British consent to closer integration. Mr Hollande has already had his fill of perfidious Albion. Mr Cameron is left promising a referendum that could leave Britain stranded on the margins of its own continent.
我不认为退出欧盟是卡梅伦的政策目标。他对欧洲怀疑论者轻易许下了承诺，称自己能确保达成“一个新的安排，使英国在与欧盟的关系方面能有挑拣和选择的余地。但令人不那么愉快的现实是，其余26个欧盟成员国对英国这种一厢情愿的想法并不感冒。英国曾试图威胁欧元区做出让步，以此作为英国同意加强一体化的条件。但这一笨拙的企图冒犯了德国总理默克尔。法国总统奥朗德也已受够了背信弃义的英国人。卡梅伦目前只能承诺将举行一次全民公投，而这可能导致英国进一步陷入在欧洲被边缘化的困境。
And finally?.?.?.?
最后一点是，公平游戏（或者只是相对公平）
Play fair(ish)
无论东方还是西方，南半球还是北半球，民主国家还是独裁专制国家，各国现任领导人目前面临的最大威胁都是民众对社会不公日益强烈的不满情绪。在发达经济体中，人们普遍认为（事实通常也确实如此），富有阶层掠夺了全球化带来的全部好处，而其他社会群体则被迫背上财政紧缩的负担。如果说中东地区近期的暴乱是由一颗火花引发的，那么社会各阶层对腐败问题普遍感到愤怒就是这颗火花产生的原因。习近平警告称，贪污腐败可能导致颠覆中国共产党的领导权。他是对的。虽然没有人会奢望平均主义的乌托邦，但新老中产阶级都在用一种厌恶的眼光冷眼看着仅占人口总数1%的最富有人群所享受的各种特权。
West and east, north and south, democratic and authoritarian – the biggest threat to incumbent leaders flows from a growing resentment about unfairness. In advanced economies, the perception (and often the reality) is that the wealthy have grabbed all the gains of globalisation while the rest have been handed the burden of austerity. If there was a single spark for the uprisings in the Middle East it came from popular rage at corruption at every level of society. Mr Xi has warned that graft could overturn the rule of China’s Communist party. He is right. No one expects an egalitarian utopia, but middle classes old and new are looking with some menace at the privileges of the 1 per cent.
