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This New Year's, you may want to make a resolution to go house hunting.
2023将至，你的新年愿望可以是──找个好房买。
Home prices are finally starting to recover, but they're still low enough to get a great deal. Add to that interest rates that are at historic lows, and 2023 may be the time for first-time home buyers to finally get in the game.
美国的房价终于开始回升，但仍处于很低的水平，完全可以买到很划算的房子。另外，利率目前也处于历史低位。因此，2023年可能是首次购房者终于得以参与“置业游戏的一年。
'We think the answer, definitively, is that home prices have bottomed,' says Stan Humphries, chief economist of real-estate firm Zillow. 'Right now, buying looks very attractive, even for short-term time horizons.'
房地产公司Zillow的首席经济学家汉弗莱斯(Stan Humphries)说，我们认为答案很明确，房价已经触底，即使短期来看，买房现在看来也是个十分诱人的想法。
While the timing may be right, the tougher standards lenders imposed after the housing crash are still very much in place. So buyers with good credit and a hefty down payment may benefit the most.
虽然2023年也许是买房的好时机，但美国楼市崩盘后贷款机构颁布的严格借贷条件目前仍没有太大变化。所以说，如果你具备良好的信用，又能拿出一大笔首付款，这样的买家可能会受益最大。
'Now it's all about the rules,' says Jeff Conn, a mortgage banker in the Atlanta area.
亚特兰大地区的房地产抵押银行家康恩(Jeff Conn)说，现在完全要按规则办事。
Window of Opportunity
找机会下手
A bevy of data suggest housing prices have finally begun to climb back. So there's a window of opportunity before prices start a faster upward march.
有组数据表明，美国房价终于开始攀升。而在房价开始以更快的速度回升之前，你是有机会下手的。
The median price of an existing single-family home was $178,700 in October, up 11% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. But that's still down 13% from $204,800 in October 2007.
据全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)统计，美国现有独栋住宅今年10月份的价格中值是17.87万美元，较一年前上涨了11%，但比起2007年10月20.48万美元的价格仍下降了13%。
Buyers can find particularly good deals in the Phoenix area, where home values are rising steadily, but are still more than 40% below the peak, says Mr. Humphries. Home values have also started rebounding from their bottoms in the Dallas, Miami and Denver metropolitan areas, but are still below their peaks─meaning there are potential deals to be had, he says.
在凤凰城地区，买家也许能淘到特别好的房子。汉弗莱斯说，那里的房价正在稳步上涨，但据最高点仍有超过40%的落差。他说，达拉斯、迈阿密和丹佛等都市区的房价也开始反弹，但仍低于峰值，这意味着在那些地方或许能买到划算的房子。
Prices are on the way up, but mortgage rates remain in the bargain bin. The average rate on a standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record low 3.46% for the week ended Nov. 16, according to data provider HSH.com. The average rate on a standard 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage hit a low of 2.84%. And rates are expected to stay low next year and further out, thanks, in part, to the Federal Reserve's moves to keep interest rates low until mid-2023.
房价开始涨，但房产抵押贷款利率仍处于偏低水平。据数据提供商HSH.com 统计，截至11月16日那周，30年固息标准抵押贷款的平均利率达到3.46%的历史低位，而15年固息抵押贷款的平均利率也创下了2.84%的低点。预计明年甚至在更长时间内，这些贷款利率都将在低位运行，其中部分原因在于美联储(Federal Reserve)出台的在2023年年中之前压低利率的举措。
For first-time home buyers, it may be easier to buy. Many first-time buyers are opting for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, since they now have looser credit and down-payment criteria compared with the tougher criteria for standard loans. The typical rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage backed by the FHA was 3.31% last week, according to HSH.com.
对首次购房者来说，买房可能会更为容易。很多首次购房者现在选择的是美国联邦住房管理局(Federal Housing Administration，简称: FHA)支持的贷款，因为与标准贷款所需的严格要求相比，该管理局的信贷条件和首付要求相对都较为宽松。HSH.com的数据显示，FHA支持的30年固息抵押贷款利率上周为3.31%。
But the FHA is now facing billions of dollars of losses on loans originated between 2007 and 2009. To help bolster its finances, the agency recently announced a series of measures including higher annual insurance premiums and a change to rules that allowed insurance premiums to lapse. Typical borrowers have to pay an up-front insurance premium of 1.75% of the loan amount and, starting in 2023, a higher annual premium of 1.35% of the balance, up from 1.25%, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.
但联邦住房管理局在2007年至2009年期间发放的贷款目前面临上百亿美元的损失。为支持自己的财务状况，这家机构最近宣布了一系列措施，其中包括提高每年缴纳的保险费以及对某些规定的修改，原来的规定允许保险费转归。HSH.com的副总裁嘉彬葛(Keith Gumbinger)说，按揭贷款的借款人通常需先行支付相当于借款总额1.75%的保险费，并且从2023年起，借款人每年支付的保险费将从未偿还贷款总额的1.25%提高到1.35%。
Many potential buyers have sat out of the market and rented instead-because they were waiting for prices to bottom out, found it to be a cheaper option or couldn't qualify for a mortgage. But the jump in renters after the housing collapse led to higher rents throughout much of the country. In many cases, it no longer makes financial sense to rent instead of buy.
许多潜在的买房人一直没有入市买房，而是选择租房，这是因为他们或在等待房价跌至最低水平，或是发现租房是一个更便宜的选择，或是没有资格申请购房按揭贷款。但美国住房市场崩盘后租房人数大幅跃升导致美国许多地方的房屋租金都出现了上涨。许多情况下，租房相对买房在财务上已不再合算。
In about three out of four U.S. housing markets, it now takes less than three years of owning a home with a standard 30-year mortgage for buying to be cheaper than renting a similar space, says Zillow's Mr. Humphries.
房地产公司Zillow的首席经济学家汉弗莱斯说，在美国约四分之三的住房市场上，举借标准的30年期按揭贷款且购房时间不足三年的人现在用于供房的花费都比他租相同条件住房的花费要少。
Tougher Standards
按揭贷款标准收紧
While home prices are trying to inch back to pre-crash levels, lenders are not returning to the lax lending standards of the boom market, when loans with no down payments were not rare, says Mike Fratantoni, vice president of research at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
美国抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)负责研究的副会长弗拉坦托尼(Mike Fratantoni)说，虽然房价正在一点点地恢复到住房市场崩盘前的水平，但发放购房贷款的机构却没有恢复住房市场繁荣时期那种宽松的放贷标准，当时不要求支付首付的购房贷款也并不少见。
It's still back to basics. That means 'good credit, a down payment, and document, document, document,' says Matt Vernon, head of home loans sales at Bank of America BAC +1.33% . 'Credit [was] always available, but it's different. Not different than it was a decade ago, but different than it was five years ago.'
按揭贷款业务仍在向最基本做法回归。美国银行(Bank of America)的家庭贷款销售部门负责人弗农(Matt Vernon)说，这意味着借款人要有良好的信誉，贷款要付首付，并且借款人要准备齐贷款机构要求提供的各种文件。他说，贷款总是可以得到的，但获得的方式却与以往有了不同；与10年前相比可能没什么不同，但与五年前相比则有所不同。
Borrowers will typically need a FICO credit score of at least 740, and a minimum 20% down payment to qualify for the best rates on a standard mortgage, says Mr. Gumbinger. FHA-backed loans require a minimum 3.5% down payment and lenders often require a minimum FICO score of 620, he adds.
嘉彬葛说，美国申请标准按揭贷款的人要想获得最优惠利率，通常需要美国个人消费信用评估公司(FICO)给其的信用评分达到740分以上，并且同意至少支付相当于总房款20%的首付款。嘉彬葛还说，联邦住房管理局提供担保的按揭贷款需要借款人最低支付相当于总房款3.5%的首付款，而且借款人的FICO信用评分还常常需要达到620分以上。
And be prepared to break out the paperwork-lots of it. You'll typically need to have one or two years of tax returns, as well as pay stubs from an employer, which some lenders didn't ask for before the crash. Also expect to provide statements from your bank and brokerage accounts, says Mr. Vernon.
要准备齐申请按揭贷款所需要的文件，你通常需要有一到两年的纳税申报单，以及雇主给你的工资存根，而一些放贷机构在住房市场崩盘前并不要求提供这些文件。弗农说，放贷机构预计还会要求你提供开户银行和经纪公司出具的证明。
'There's got to be a clear paper trail,' says Mr. Conn.
按揭贷款银行家康恩说，借款人必须提供清晰完整的书面材料。
Also, some mortgage pre-approvals are expiring faster, in some cases lasting only 30 days, compared with 60 to 90 days before the bust, says Mr. Gumbinger. After that, you'll need to show the lender updated financials.
嘉彬葛说，一些按揭贷款发放机构的还缩短了贷款的预先审核期，某些情况下这一审核期只剩下30天，而住房市场崩盘前则是60天至90天。如果过了预先审核期你仍未办完贷款手续，你将需向放贷机构提供更新后的个人财务资料。
'We tell people to never leave any stone unturned,' he says.
嘉彬葛说，我们对申请按揭贷款的人说，一定要全力以赴。
This New Year's, you may want to make a resolution to go house hunting.
2023将至，你的新年愿望可以是──找个好房买。
Home prices are finally starting to recover, but they're still low enough to get a great deal. Add to that interest rates that are at historic lows, and 2023 may be the time for first-time home buyers to finally get in the game.
美国的房价终于开始回升，但仍处于很低的水平，完全可以买到很划算的房子。另外，利率目前也处于历史低位。因此，2023年可能是首次购房者终于得以参与“置业游戏的一年。
'We think the answer, definitively, is that home prices have bottomed,' says Stan Humphries, chief economist of real-estate firm Zillow. 'Right now, buying looks very attractive, even for short-term time horizons.'
房地产公司Zillow的首席经济学家汉弗莱斯(Stan Humphries)说，我们认为答案很明确，房价已经触底，即使短期来看，买房现在看来也是个十分诱人的想法。
While the timing may be right, the tougher standards lenders imposed after the housing crash are still very much in place. So buyers with good credit and a hefty down payment may benefit the most.
虽然2023年也许是买房的好时机，但美国楼市崩盘后贷款机构颁布的严格借贷条件目前仍没有太大变化。所以说，如果你具备良好的信用，又能拿出一大笔首付款，这样的买家可能会受益最大。
'Now it's all about the rules,' says Jeff Conn, a mortgage banker in the Atlanta area.
亚特兰大地区的房地产抵押银行家康恩(Jeff Conn)说，现在完全要按规则办事。
Window of Opportunity
找机会下手
A bevy of data suggest housing prices have finally begun to climb back. So there's a window of opportunity before prices start a faster upward march.
有组数据表明，美国房价终于开始攀升。而在房价开始以更快的速度回升之前，你是有机会下手的。
The median price of an existing single-family home was $178,700 in October, up 11% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. But that's still down 13% from $204,800 in October 2007.
据全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)统计，美国现有独栋住宅今年10月份的价格中值是17.87万美元，较一年前上涨了11%，但比起2007年10月20.48万美元的价格仍下降了13%。
Buyers can find particularly good deals in the Phoenix area, where home values are rising steadily, but are still more than 40% below the peak, says Mr. Humphries. Home values have also started rebounding from their bottoms in the Dallas, Miami and Denver metropolitan areas, but are still below their peaks─meaning there are potential deals to be had, he says.
在凤凰城地区，买家也许能淘到特别好的房子。汉弗莱斯说，那里的房价正在稳步上涨，但据最高点仍有超过40%的落差。他说，达拉斯、迈阿密和丹佛等都市区的房价也开始反弹，但仍低于峰值，这意味着在那些地方或许能买到划算的房子。
Prices are on the way up, but mortgage rates remain in the bargain bin. The average rate on a standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record low 3.46% for the week ended Nov. 16, according to data provider HSH.com. The average rate on a standard 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage hit a low of 2.84%. And rates are expected to stay low next year and further out, thanks, in part, to the Federal Reserve's moves to keep interest rates low until mid-2023.
房价开始涨，但房产抵押贷款利率仍处于偏低水平。据数据提供商HSH.com 统计，截至11月16日那周，30年固息标准抵押贷款的平均利率达到3.46%的历史低位，而15年固息抵押贷款的平均利率也创下了2.84%的低点。预计明年甚至在更长时间内，这些贷款利率都将在低位运行，其中部分原因在于美联储(Federal Reserve)出台的在2023年年中之前压低利率的举措。
For first-time home buyers, it may be easier to buy. Many first-time buyers are opting for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, since they now have looser credit and down-payment criteria compared with the tougher criteria for standard loans. The typical rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage backed by the FHA was 3.31% last week, according to HSH.com.
对首次购房者来说，买房可能会更为容易。很多首次购房者现在选择的是美国联邦住房管理局(Federal Housing Administration，简称: FHA)支持的贷款，因为与标准贷款所需的严格要求相比，该管理局的信贷条件和首付要求相对都较为宽松。HSH.com的数据显示，FHA支持的30年固息抵押贷款利率上周为3.31%。
But the FHA is now facing billions of dollars of losses on loans originated between 2007 and 2009. To help bolster its finances, the agency recently announced a series of measures including higher annual insurance premiums and a change to rules that allowed insurance premiums to lapse. Typical borrowers have to pay an up-front insurance premium of 1.75% of the loan amount and, starting in 2023, a higher annual premium of 1.35% of the balance, up from 1.25%, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.
但联邦住房管理局在2007年至2009年期间发放的贷款目前面临上百亿美元的损失。为支持自己的财务状况，这家机构最近宣布了一系列措施，其中包括提高每年缴纳的保险费以及对某些规定的修改，原来的规定允许保险费转归。HSH.com的副总裁嘉彬葛(Keith Gumbinger)说，按揭贷款的借款人通常需先行支付相当于借款总额1.75%的保险费，并且从2023年起，借款人每年支付的保险费将从未偿还贷款总额的1.25%提高到1.35%。
Many potential buyers have sat out of the market and rented instead-because they were waiting for prices to bottom out, found it to be a cheaper option or couldn't qualify for a mortgage. But the jump in renters after the housing collapse led to higher rents throughout much of the country. In many cases, it no longer makes financial sense to rent instead of buy.
许多潜在的买房人一直没有入市买房，而是选择租房，这是因为他们或在等待房价跌至最低水平，或是发现租房是一个更便宜的选择，或是没有资格申请购房按揭贷款。但美国住房市场崩盘后租房人数大幅跃升导致美国许多地方的房屋租金都出现了上涨。许多情况下，租房相对买房在财务上已不再合算。
In about three out of four U.S. housing markets, it now takes less than three years of owning a home with a standard 30-year mortgage for buying to be cheaper than renting a similar space, says Zillow's Mr. Humphries.
房地产公司Zillow的首席经济学家汉弗莱斯说，在美国约四分之三的住房市场上，举借标准的30年期按揭贷款且购房时间不足三年的人现在用于供房的花费都比他租相同条件住房的花费要少。
Tougher Standards
按揭贷款标准收紧
While home prices are trying to inch back to pre-crash levels, lenders are not returning to the lax lending standards of the boom market, when loans with no down payments were not rare, says Mike Fratantoni, vice president of research at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
美国抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)负责研究的副会长弗拉坦托尼(Mike Fratantoni)说，虽然房价正在一点点地恢复到住房市场崩盘前的水平，但发放购房贷款的机构却没有恢复住房市场繁荣时期那种宽松的放贷标准，当时不要求支付首付的购房贷款也并不少见。
It's still back to basics. That means 'good credit, a down payment, and document, document, document,' says Matt Vernon, head of home loans sales at Bank of America BAC +1.33% . 'Credit [was] always available, but it's different. Not different than it was a decade ago, but different than it was five years ago.'
按揭贷款业务仍在向最基本做法回归。美国银行(Bank of America)的家庭贷款销售部门负责人弗农(Matt Vernon)说，这意味着借款人要有良好的信誉，贷款要付首付，并且借款人要准备齐贷款机构要求提供的各种文件。他说，贷款总是可以得到的，但获得的方式却与以往有了不同；与10年前相比可能没什么不同，但与五年前相比则有所不同。
Borrowers will typically need a FICO credit score of at least 740, and a minimum 20% down payment to qualify for the best rates on a standard mortgage, says Mr. Gumbinger. FHA-backed loans require a minimum 3.5% down payment and lenders often require a minimum FICO score of 620, he adds.
嘉彬葛说，美国申请标准按揭贷款的人要想获得最优惠利率，通常需要美国个人消费信用评估公司(FICO)给其的信用评分达到740分以上，并且同意至少支付相当于总房款20%的首付款。嘉彬葛还说，联邦住房管理局提供担保的按揭贷款需要借款人最低支付相当于总房款3.5%的首付款，而且借款人的FICO信用评分还常常需要达到620分以上。
And be prepared to break out the paperwork-lots of it. You'll typically need to have one or two years of tax returns, as well as pay stubs from an employer, which some lenders didn't ask for before the crash. Also expect to provide statements from your bank and brokerage accounts, says Mr. Vernon.
要准备齐申请按揭贷款所需要的文件，你通常需要有一到两年的纳税申报单，以及雇主给你的工资存根，而一些放贷机构在住房市场崩盘前并不要求提供这些文件。弗农说，放贷机构预计还会要求你提供开户银行和经纪公司出具的证明。
'There's got to be a clear paper trail,' says Mr. Conn.
按揭贷款银行家康恩说，借款人必须提供清晰完整的书面材料。
Also, some mortgage pre-approvals are expiring faster, in some cases lasting only 30 days, compared with 60 to 90 days before the bust, says Mr. Gumbinger. After that, you'll need to show the lender updated financials.
嘉彬葛说，一些按揭贷款发放机构的还缩短了贷款的预先审核期，某些情况下这一审核期只剩下30天，而住房市场崩盘前则是60天至90天。如果过了预先审核期你仍未办完贷款手续，你将需向放贷机构提供更新后的个人财务资料。
'We tell people to never leave any stone unturned,' he says.
嘉彬葛说，我们对申请按揭贷款的人说，一定要全力以赴。
