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The UK is out of recession but an important question remains: when better times return will everyone share in them? It is possible that Britain, like other advanced economies, could experience sustained growth that fails to improve living standards for swaths of the working population. Growth does not always raise wages – certainly not for all.
英国已走出衰退，但一个重要的问题仍然存在：当更好的光景回归时，是否所有人都会分享？与其他发达经济体一样，英国可能在经历持续增长的同时，无法改善大批工作人口的生活水平。增长不总是会带来加薪，至少不会让所有人都加薪。
In the US, wage stagnation has been a problem for a generation. The UK experience of it is more recent. In the years before the financial crisis, real wages did not rise and family incomes were only propped up by tax credits. If the recovery sees a return to this pattern, it will be a joyless one for much of Britain.
在美国，薪资停滞已经是一代人的问题。英国出现这一问题的时间更近一些。在此次金融危机之前的几年里，实际薪资没有上涨，家庭收入只是得到税收减免的支持。如果复苏回到了这种模式，那么对于很多英国人而言，这场复苏不会让他们感到高兴。
During the next decade, structural factors will make it even less likely that growth will be broadly shared among the population. Technology will increase high- and low-skill jobs, creating a more polarised labour market. Unemployment is having an unprecedented effect on wage growth: earnings have been frozen and will remain so until employers compete for workers, rather than the other way around. State support for low-income families is set to fall. Female employment, a motor of prosperity for low- and middle-income families in the late 20th century, has stalled. Britain also needs to do more to accommodate the older worker – the number in employment has risen but not as quickly as in other advanced economies.
未来10年，结构性因素将让全体国民广泛分享经济增长变得更不可能。科技将增加高技能和低技能就业，创造一个更加两极分化的劳动力市常失业正对薪资上涨产生空前影响：收入出现停滞，并将在雇主争夺员工之前继续如此。政府对低收入家庭的支持将减弱。女性就业（这是20世纪末中低收入家庭富裕的推动因素）陷于停滞。英国还需要做出更多努力，来容纳年龄较大的员工，他们的就业数量有所上升，但不像其他发达经济体那样快。
It is, of course, true that without a return to sustained growth, living standards will not improve. But it is important to understand that rising gross domestic product does not automatically lead to higher wages for all. Shared growth is unlikely to rise by accident. New policies are necessary, as the independent Commission on Living Standards, of which I am a member, sets out in our report out today.
当然，同样正确的是，如果没有回归持续增长，生活水平将不会提高。但重要的是我们要明白，日益上升的国内生产总值(GDP)不会自动带来全民薪资上涨。共享增长不太可能意外发生。新的政策是必要的，正如独立的生活标准委员会(Commission on Living Standards)在最近公布的报告中所提出的那样。我是该委员会的委员之一。
What are those measures?
这些措施是什么？
Reducing unemployment must be the priority. But over the medium term, the government must lift overall employment levels by helping people who do not work. It must unite economic and social policy. Increased female employment requires a major expansion in affordable childcare, as the system results in little incentive to work. We should also allow second earners – overwhelmingly women – to keep more of their earnings before support is withdrawn under Universal Credit, the government’s flagship welfare reform. And to increase employment among older workers we should reform the tax system to strengthen incentives to stay in work – for instance, raising national insurance thresholds beyond the age of 55.
降低失业率必须是重点。但中期而言，英国政府必须通过帮助那些不工作的人们来提高整体就业水平。它必须将经济和社会政策结合起来。增加女性就业，要求大举扩充价格适度的儿童保育服务，现行体制让女性几乎没有出来工作的动机。我们还应允许家庭的第二个有收入的成员——大多数是女性——在英国政府旗舰福利改革——统一福利(Universal Credit)撤消对她们的支持之前保留更多的收入。要增加老年人就业，我们应改革税收体系，以增强继续工作的激励，例如提高55岁以上人群缴纳国民保险(NI)费的门槛。
We must also address the pervasive problem of low pay. This costs the taxpayer, who funds wage subsidies, as well as those trapped in poorly paid jobs. An across the board rise in the minimum wage would be unwise given the fragile labour market. But the Low Pay Commission, the government’s independent advisory body, should identify sectors where a higher minimum wage would be affordable.
我们还必须解决薪资低的普遍问题。除了困于低收入工作的人们，为薪资补贴融资的纳税人也将付出代价。鉴于脆弱的劳动力市场，全面提高最低工资的做法将是不明智的。但英国政府独立顾问组织低薪委员会(Low Pay Commission)应确定在哪些行业提高最低工资将是负担的起的。
There is also a need for greater ambition in lifting the productivity and earnings of the future workforce. Historically we have failed to provide good technical training. This must be reversed if more non-graduates are to compete for the growing number of skilled jobs that will be created during the next decade. We must also ensure the forthcoming rise in the education leaving age from 16 to 18 is used to ensure no young person finishes formal education without mastering basic English and maths.
此外，我们还需要怀有更大雄心，提高未来劳动人口的生产率和收入。从历史上来说，我们一直未能提供良好的技术培训。如果更多非大学毕业生要争夺未来10年将创造出来的越来越多的高技能工作，那么这一情况必须逆转。我们还必须确保即将实施的将义务教育年龄从16岁延长到18岁的政策，能够确保没有一个年轻人在尚未掌握基本英语和数学的情况下结束正规教育。
How might all this be paid for? Despite austerity, there are still choices to be made. The chancellor’s axe has spared universal benefits, such as winter fuel allowance, for pensioners. That should change. Pension tax-relief for the most affluent should be trimmed. And the anomaly of exempting those working beyond the state pension age from national insurance must end. If the government makes these hard choices, it can introduce new policy and maintain its fiscal position.
这一切应该用什么来买单？尽管政府提出了紧缩政策，但我们仍可以做出选择。财政大臣的预算削减方案迄今不包括针对退休人员的普遍福利，例如冬季取暖补助。这点应该改变。针对英国最富人群的养老金税收优惠应削减。超过法定退休年龄工作的人免交国民保险费的这种不正常现象必须终止。如果英国政府做出这些艰难选择，它就可以在推出新政的同时维持财政状况。
This challenge – and the response – should transcend party politics. Even if Britain secures steady growth, there are powerful forces that mean the benefits are likely to flow upwards towards higher earners, away from those who most need them. Shared economic growth is in our collective interest. The performance – never mind legitimacy – of our market economy demands that future prosperity benefits the great majority.
这一挑战——以及回应——应超越党派政治。即便英国获得了稳定增长，也有强大的力量意味着，效益可能会流向收入较高的人群，而不是那些最需要的人群。共享的经济增长符合我们的集体利益。我们市场经济的表现——更不用说合法性了——要求未来的繁荣要让大多数人受益。
The writer is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation
本文作者是英国决议基金会(Resolution Foundation)首席执行官
The UK is out of recession but an important question remains: when better times return will everyone share in them? It is possible that Britain, like other advanced economies, could experience sustained growth that fails to improve living standards for swaths of the working population. Growth does not always raise wages – certainly not for all.
英国已走出衰退，但一个重要的问题仍然存在：当更好的光景回归时，是否所有人都会分享？与其他发达经济体一样，英国可能在经历持续增长的同时，无法改善大批工作人口的生活水平。增长不总是会带来加薪，至少不会让所有人都加薪。
In the US, wage stagnation has been a problem for a generation. The UK experience of it is more recent. In the years before the financial crisis, real wages did not rise and family incomes were only propped up by tax credits. If the recovery sees a return to this pattern, it will be a joyless one for much of Britain.
在美国，薪资停滞已经是一代人的问题。英国出现这一问题的时间更近一些。在此次金融危机之前的几年里，实际薪资没有上涨，家庭收入只是得到税收减免的支持。如果复苏回到了这种模式，那么对于很多英国人而言，这场复苏不会让他们感到高兴。
During the next decade, structural factors will make it even less likely that growth will be broadly shared among the population. Technology will increase high- and low-skill jobs, creating a more polarised labour market. Unemployment is having an unprecedented effect on wage growth: earnings have been frozen and will remain so until employers compete for workers, rather than the other way around. State support for low-income families is set to fall. Female employment, a motor of prosperity for low- and middle-income families in the late 20th century, has stalled. Britain also needs to do more to accommodate the older worker – the number in employment has risen but not as quickly as in other advanced economies.
未来10年，结构性因素将让全体国民广泛分享经济增长变得更不可能。科技将增加高技能和低技能就业，创造一个更加两极分化的劳动力市常失业正对薪资上涨产生空前影响：收入出现停滞，并将在雇主争夺员工之前继续如此。政府对低收入家庭的支持将减弱。女性就业（这是20世纪末中低收入家庭富裕的推动因素）陷于停滞。英国还需要做出更多努力，来容纳年龄较大的员工，他们的就业数量有所上升，但不像其他发达经济体那样快。
It is, of course, true that without a return to sustained growth, living standards will not improve. But it is important to understand that rising gross domestic product does not automatically lead to higher wages for all. Shared growth is unlikely to rise by accident. New policies are necessary, as the independent Commission on Living Standards, of which I am a member, sets out in our report out today.
当然，同样正确的是，如果没有回归持续增长，生活水平将不会提高。但重要的是我们要明白，日益上升的国内生产总值(GDP)不会自动带来全民薪资上涨。共享增长不太可能意外发生。新的政策是必要的，正如独立的生活标准委员会(Commission on Living Standards)在最近公布的报告中所提出的那样。我是该委员会的委员之一。
What are those measures?
这些措施是什么？
Reducing unemployment must be the priority. But over the medium term, the government must lift overall employment levels by helping people who do not work. It must unite economic and social policy. Increased female employment requires a major expansion in affordable childcare, as the system results in little incentive to work. We should also allow second earners – overwhelmingly women – to keep more of their earnings before support is withdrawn under Universal Credit, the government’s flagship welfare reform. And to increase employment among older workers we should reform the tax system to strengthen incentives to stay in work – for instance, raising national insurance thresholds beyond the age of 55.
降低失业率必须是重点。但中期而言，英国政府必须通过帮助那些不工作的人们来提高整体就业水平。它必须将经济和社会政策结合起来。增加女性就业，要求大举扩充价格适度的儿童保育服务，现行体制让女性几乎没有出来工作的动机。我们还应允许家庭的第二个有收入的成员——大多数是女性——在英国政府旗舰福利改革——统一福利(Universal Credit)撤消对她们的支持之前保留更多的收入。要增加老年人就业，我们应改革税收体系，以增强继续工作的激励，例如提高55岁以上人群缴纳国民保险(NI)费的门槛。
We must also address the pervasive problem of low pay. This costs the taxpayer, who funds wage subsidies, as well as those trapped in poorly paid jobs. An across the board rise in the minimum wage would be unwise given the fragile labour market. But the Low Pay Commission, the government’s independent advisory body, should identify sectors where a higher minimum wage would be affordable.
我们还必须解决薪资低的普遍问题。除了困于低收入工作的人们，为薪资补贴融资的纳税人也将付出代价。鉴于脆弱的劳动力市场，全面提高最低工资的做法将是不明智的。但英国政府独立顾问组织低薪委员会(Low Pay Commission)应确定在哪些行业提高最低工资将是负担的起的。
There is also a need for greater ambition in lifting the productivity and earnings of the future workforce. Historically we have failed to provide good technical training. This must be reversed if more non-graduates are to compete for the growing number of skilled jobs that will be created during the next decade. We must also ensure the forthcoming rise in the education leaving age from 16 to 18 is used to ensure no young person finishes formal education without mastering basic English and maths.
此外，我们还需要怀有更大雄心，提高未来劳动人口的生产率和收入。从历史上来说，我们一直未能提供良好的技术培训。如果更多非大学毕业生要争夺未来10年将创造出来的越来越多的高技能工作，那么这一情况必须逆转。我们还必须确保即将实施的将义务教育年龄从16岁延长到18岁的政策，能够确保没有一个年轻人在尚未掌握基本英语和数学的情况下结束正规教育。
How might all this be paid for? Despite austerity, there are still choices to be made. The chancellor’s axe has spared universal benefits, such as winter fuel allowance, for pensioners. That should change. Pension tax-relief for the most affluent should be trimmed. And the anomaly of exempting those working beyond the state pension age from national insurance must end. If the government makes these hard choices, it can introduce new policy and maintain its fiscal position.
这一切应该用什么来买单？尽管政府提出了紧缩政策，但我们仍可以做出选择。财政大臣的预算削减方案迄今不包括针对退休人员的普遍福利，例如冬季取暖补助。这点应该改变。针对英国最富人群的养老金税收优惠应削减。超过法定退休年龄工作的人免交国民保险费的这种不正常现象必须终止。如果英国政府做出这些艰难选择，它就可以在推出新政的同时维持财政状况。
This challenge – and the response – should transcend party politics. Even if Britain secures steady growth, there are powerful forces that mean the benefits are likely to flow upwards towards higher earners, away from those who most need them. Shared economic growth is in our collective interest. The performance – never mind legitimacy – of our market economy demands that future prosperity benefits the great majority.
这一挑战——以及回应——应超越党派政治。即便英国获得了稳定增长，也有强大的力量意味着，效益可能会流向收入较高的人群，而不是那些最需要的人群。共享的经济增长符合我们的集体利益。我们市场经济的表现——更不用说合法性了——要求未来的繁荣要让大多数人受益。
The writer is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation
本文作者是英国决议基金会(Resolution Foundation)首席执行官
