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Sixteen years ago this month there was panic across central Asia. Having captured Kabul, the Taliban were moving northwards and some commanders were threatening to Talibanise the entire region. That prompted Russia and China to promise support to the ex-Soviet states across the region.
16年前的这个月，整个中亚被恐慌所笼罩。塔利班(Taliban)在占领喀布尔(Kabul)之后开始北移，一些指挥官威胁要对整个中亚进行“塔利班化。迫于这一局势，俄罗斯和中国不得不承诺向该地区这些前苏联加盟共和国提供支持。
Post September 11 the Taliban threat receded but today central Asians are once again panicking at the thought of US troops exiting Afghanistan. Added to the threat of a resurgent Taliban are domestic Islamist extremist groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), whose members have spent the past decade in Pakistan’s tribal regions and are now, armed and battle ready, re-entering central Asia through northern Afghanistan.
“9.11事件之后，塔利班的威胁有所缓和，但一想到美军即将撤出阿富汗，如今的中亚人再次陷入了恐慌。除了塔利班势力可能复苏的威胁之外，乌兹别克斯坦伊斯兰运动(Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU)等国内伊斯兰极端组织也让人恐慌。过去十年，这些组织的成员一直活跃在巴基斯坦部落地区，现在他们已经武装起来并做好战争准备，从阿富汗北部再次进入中亚地区。
A flurry of security officials from Nato, the US and the EU have been visiting the region trying to reassure the governments in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan that border Afghanistan, and fragile Kyrgyzstan, over increased aid and security. US officials are also believed to be offering sales of unwanted heavy weapons from the Afghan theatre.
北约(NATO)、美国、欧盟(EU)的安全官员陆续到访该地区，试图让与阿富汗接壤的乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯以及脆弱的吉尔吉斯斯坦相信，向它们提供的援助会增加，地区安全性也会增强。同时，据信美国官员也在向这些国家“兜售阿富汗战场上淘汰下来的重型武器。
But at the same time Russia and China are trying to wean those governments away from the US, with Vladimir Putin in particular making a determined effort to return central Asia to Russia’s backyard. In October Mr Putin signed a new 30-year treaty to secure a base in Tajikistan. A joint Russian-Tajik statement spoke of “the threat of terrorism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan. The 7,000 Russian troops based in Tajikistan might increase. A month earlier Mr Putin had signed a treaty with Kyrgyzstan extending an air base lease for 20 years.
但与此同时，俄罗斯和中国也在努力使中亚国家摆脱对美国的依赖，尤其是弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)似乎下了很大的决心，把中亚重新变为俄罗斯的后院。10月份，普京签署了一份把对塔吉克斯坦境内一处军事基地的租期延长30年的协议。俄罗斯和塔吉克斯坦发布的一项联合声明提到了“阿富汗恐怖主义和毒品走私活动的威胁。目前俄罗斯在塔吉克斯坦的驻军为7000名，未来规模可能会有所增加。一个月之前，普京还与吉尔吉斯斯坦签署了一项协议，把对其一处空军基地的租约延期20年。
China has been offering greater security through the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation – a regional pact that is yet to really take off – as well as using its long term ally Pakistan to gain influence with the Taliban. India too has a growing presence, with a military base in Tajikistan and oil and mineral stakes in Kazakhstan.
中国一直通过上合组织(SCO)为中亚提供更大的安全保障，同时也在通过其长期盟国巴基斯坦对塔利班施加更大的影响。上合组织是一个地区合作组织，其潜力尚未真正发挥出来。由于在塔吉克斯坦拥有一处军事基地，加上在哈萨克斯坦拥有石油和矿产权益，印度对中亚的影响力也在增加。
This represents an intensification of the new Great Game that erupted in the region after the break-up of the Soviet Union.
这些都表明，在苏联解体后，中亚地区已迎来了一场新的大角逐。
Mr Putin’s aim is to ensure that the US is left with little presence in the region. At present Russia allows Nato supplies to travel through its territory to Afghanistan. The US has negotiated similar rights for its withdrawal from Afghanistan to reduce dependence on the southern route, which Pakistan closed earlier this year during a spat with the US. But Russia will make sure that these transit facilities end after 2023.
普京的目标就是确保尽可能削弱美国在中亚地区的影响力。目前，俄罗斯还允许北约通过其领土向阿富汗运送军用物资。美国也通过谈判保证了从阿富汗撤军之后享有类似的权利，从而减少对南部运输线的依赖。今年早些时候，由于与美国产生争端，巴基斯坦关闭了美国的南部运输线。但俄罗斯将确保在2023年之后关停这些运输设施。
Russia is also adamantly opposing US plans to maintain small military bases in Afghanistan post-2023 for special forces, drone missiles and trainers for the Afghan army.
俄罗斯也强烈反对美国2023年之后在阿富汗保留由特殊部队、可供无人机发射的导弹以及针对阿富汗军队的培训人员组成的小规模军事基地。
So far only Uzbekistan has dissented from the Russian line. In July President Islam Karimov withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) of pro-Moscow states. He has also offered the Americans long-term facilities and is negotiating for US weapons supplies. But even if Mr Karimov – a ruthless dictator who has refused to carry out economic reforms – can resist Russian pressure for long, he is hardly an ideal ally for the west.
目前，只有乌兹别克斯坦不赞同俄罗斯的立常7月份，乌兹别克斯坦总统伊斯兰·卡里莫夫(Islam Karimov)宣布退出持亲俄立尝由前苏联加盟共和国组成的集体安全条约组织(Collective Security Treaty Organisation)。同时，他还给美国提供长期设施，并争取获得美国的武器供应。但即使可以长期抵制住俄罗斯的压力，卡里莫夫作为一位拒绝实施经济改革的残忍独裁者,也很难成为西方国家的一个理想盟友。
In the meantime Nato forces in northern Afghanistan are doing their best to eliminate the central Asian Islamic militant groups. The IMU in particular has proved to be a long term threat and is now closely tied to al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba. Counting only a few hundred Uzbek and Tajik fighters in the late 1990s, the group now has thousands of militants drawn from all central Asian states as well as China, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Chechnya.
与此同时，在阿富汗北部的北约军队正在竭力清除中亚地区的伊斯兰军事团体。尤其是IMU，已经构成一种长期的威胁，并且现在它还与基地组织(al-Qaeda)以及巴基斯坦的虔诚军(Lashkar-e-Taiba)有密切联系。上世纪九十年代末，IMU只有几百名来自乌兹别克和塔吉克的战斗人员，如今该组织已经聚集了来自中亚各国、中国、土耳其、阿塞拜疆以及车臣的数千名武装分子。
Yet for all the anxiety in Moscow and Washington about the shifting balance of power in Afghanistan, it does not represent the greatest threat to central Asia. What could really undermine the ex-Soviet states is the increasing pauperisation of their people, the collapse of services such as health and education, and the excesses of dictators and failure of governments – except for Kyrgyzstan’s – to carry out any political, social or economic reforms. Unfortunately as the new Great Game continues, both Russia and the US are ignoring the social and economic crisis that is about to erupt in central Asia. That crisis will not be because of Afghanistan.
尽管俄罗斯和美国方面都很担忧阿富汗力量平衡出现的变化，但中亚面临的最大威胁并不在此。对这些前苏联加盟共和国而言，真正的危险可能在于是其民众日益贫困、医疗和教育等服务体系陷入瘫痪、独裁统治者荒淫无道，以及政府无力实施任何政治、社会或经济改革（吉尔吉斯斯坦除外）。令人遗憾的是，在这场新的大角逐的延续过程中，俄罗斯和美国都忽视了中亚可能会爆发的社会和经济危机，而这场危机的诱因将不是阿富汗。
The writer is an author of books on Afghanistan, Pakistan and central Asia, including ‘Descent into Chaos’
本文作者著有数本关于阿富汗、巴基斯坦和中亚问题的书籍，其中包括《陷入混乱》(Descent into Chaos)。
Sixteen years ago this month there was panic across central Asia. Having captured Kabul, the Taliban were moving northwards and some commanders were threatening to Talibanise the entire region. That prompted Russia and China to promise support to the ex-Soviet states across the region.
16年前的这个月，整个中亚被恐慌所笼罩。塔利班(Taliban)在占领喀布尔(Kabul)之后开始北移，一些指挥官威胁要对整个中亚进行“塔利班化。迫于这一局势，俄罗斯和中国不得不承诺向该地区这些前苏联加盟共和国提供支持。
Post September 11 the Taliban threat receded but today central Asians are once again panicking at the thought of US troops exiting Afghanistan. Added to the threat of a resurgent Taliban are domestic Islamist extremist groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), whose members have spent the past decade in Pakistan’s tribal regions and are now, armed and battle ready, re-entering central Asia through northern Afghanistan.
“9.11事件之后，塔利班的威胁有所缓和，但一想到美军即将撤出阿富汗，如今的中亚人再次陷入了恐慌。除了塔利班势力可能复苏的威胁之外，乌兹别克斯坦伊斯兰运动(Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU)等国内伊斯兰极端组织也让人恐慌。过去十年，这些组织的成员一直活跃在巴基斯坦部落地区，现在他们已经武装起来并做好战争准备，从阿富汗北部再次进入中亚地区。
A flurry of security officials from Nato, the US and the EU have been visiting the region trying to reassure the governments in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan that border Afghanistan, and fragile Kyrgyzstan, over increased aid and security. US officials are also believed to be offering sales of unwanted heavy weapons from the Afghan theatre.
北约(NATO)、美国、欧盟(EU)的安全官员陆续到访该地区，试图让与阿富汗接壤的乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯以及脆弱的吉尔吉斯斯坦相信，向它们提供的援助会增加，地区安全性也会增强。同时，据信美国官员也在向这些国家“兜售阿富汗战场上淘汰下来的重型武器。
But at the same time Russia and China are trying to wean those governments away from the US, with Vladimir Putin in particular making a determined effort to return central Asia to Russia’s backyard. In October Mr Putin signed a new 30-year treaty to secure a base in Tajikistan. A joint Russian-Tajik statement spoke of “the threat of terrorism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan. The 7,000 Russian troops based in Tajikistan might increase. A month earlier Mr Putin had signed a treaty with Kyrgyzstan extending an air base lease for 20 years.
但与此同时，俄罗斯和中国也在努力使中亚国家摆脱对美国的依赖，尤其是弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)似乎下了很大的决心，把中亚重新变为俄罗斯的后院。10月份，普京签署了一份把对塔吉克斯坦境内一处军事基地的租期延长30年的协议。俄罗斯和塔吉克斯坦发布的一项联合声明提到了“阿富汗恐怖主义和毒品走私活动的威胁。目前俄罗斯在塔吉克斯坦的驻军为7000名，未来规模可能会有所增加。一个月之前，普京还与吉尔吉斯斯坦签署了一项协议，把对其一处空军基地的租约延期20年。
China has been offering greater security through the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation – a regional pact that is yet to really take off – as well as using its long term ally Pakistan to gain influence with the Taliban. India too has a growing presence, with a military base in Tajikistan and oil and mineral stakes in Kazakhstan.
中国一直通过上合组织(SCO)为中亚提供更大的安全保障，同时也在通过其长期盟国巴基斯坦对塔利班施加更大的影响。上合组织是一个地区合作组织，其潜力尚未真正发挥出来。由于在塔吉克斯坦拥有一处军事基地，加上在哈萨克斯坦拥有石油和矿产权益，印度对中亚的影响力也在增加。
This represents an intensification of the new Great Game that erupted in the region after the break-up of the Soviet Union.
这些都表明，在苏联解体后，中亚地区已迎来了一场新的大角逐。
Mr Putin’s aim is to ensure that the US is left with little presence in the region. At present Russia allows Nato supplies to travel through its territory to Afghanistan. The US has negotiated similar rights for its withdrawal from Afghanistan to reduce dependence on the southern route, which Pakistan closed earlier this year during a spat with the US. But Russia will make sure that these transit facilities end after 2023.
普京的目标就是确保尽可能削弱美国在中亚地区的影响力。目前，俄罗斯还允许北约通过其领土向阿富汗运送军用物资。美国也通过谈判保证了从阿富汗撤军之后享有类似的权利，从而减少对南部运输线的依赖。今年早些时候，由于与美国产生争端，巴基斯坦关闭了美国的南部运输线。但俄罗斯将确保在2023年之后关停这些运输设施。
Russia is also adamantly opposing US plans to maintain small military bases in Afghanistan post-2023 for special forces, drone missiles and trainers for the Afghan army.
俄罗斯也强烈反对美国2023年之后在阿富汗保留由特殊部队、可供无人机发射的导弹以及针对阿富汗军队的培训人员组成的小规模军事基地。
So far only Uzbekistan has dissented from the Russian line. In July President Islam Karimov withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) of pro-Moscow states. He has also offered the Americans long-term facilities and is negotiating for US weapons supplies. But even if Mr Karimov – a ruthless dictator who has refused to carry out economic reforms – can resist Russian pressure for long, he is hardly an ideal ally for the west.
目前，只有乌兹别克斯坦不赞同俄罗斯的立常7月份，乌兹别克斯坦总统伊斯兰·卡里莫夫(Islam Karimov)宣布退出持亲俄立尝由前苏联加盟共和国组成的集体安全条约组织(Collective Security Treaty Organisation)。同时，他还给美国提供长期设施，并争取获得美国的武器供应。但即使可以长期抵制住俄罗斯的压力，卡里莫夫作为一位拒绝实施经济改革的残忍独裁者,也很难成为西方国家的一个理想盟友。
In the meantime Nato forces in northern Afghanistan are doing their best to eliminate the central Asian Islamic militant groups. The IMU in particular has proved to be a long term threat and is now closely tied to al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba. Counting only a few hundred Uzbek and Tajik fighters in the late 1990s, the group now has thousands of militants drawn from all central Asian states as well as China, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Chechnya.
与此同时，在阿富汗北部的北约军队正在竭力清除中亚地区的伊斯兰军事团体。尤其是IMU，已经构成一种长期的威胁，并且现在它还与基地组织(al-Qaeda)以及巴基斯坦的虔诚军(Lashkar-e-Taiba)有密切联系。上世纪九十年代末，IMU只有几百名来自乌兹别克和塔吉克的战斗人员，如今该组织已经聚集了来自中亚各国、中国、土耳其、阿塞拜疆以及车臣的数千名武装分子。
Yet for all the anxiety in Moscow and Washington about the shifting balance of power in Afghanistan, it does not represent the greatest threat to central Asia. What could really undermine the ex-Soviet states is the increasing pauperisation of their people, the collapse of services such as health and education, and the excesses of dictators and failure of governments – except for Kyrgyzstan’s – to carry out any political, social or economic reforms. Unfortunately as the new Great Game continues, both Russia and the US are ignoring the social and economic crisis that is about to erupt in central Asia. That crisis will not be because of Afghanistan.
尽管俄罗斯和美国方面都很担忧阿富汗力量平衡出现的变化，但中亚面临的最大威胁并不在此。对这些前苏联加盟共和国而言，真正的危险可能在于是其民众日益贫困、医疗和教育等服务体系陷入瘫痪、独裁统治者荒淫无道，以及政府无力实施任何政治、社会或经济改革（吉尔吉斯斯坦除外）。令人遗憾的是，在这场新的大角逐的延续过程中，俄罗斯和美国都忽视了中亚可能会爆发的社会和经济危机，而这场危机的诱因将不是阿富汗。
The writer is an author of books on Afghanistan, Pakistan and central Asia, including ‘Descent into Chaos’
本文作者著有数本关于阿富汗、巴基斯坦和中亚问题的书籍，其中包括《陷入混乱》(Descent into Chaos)。
